Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

Zheng Yongguang; Zhou Kanghui; Sheng Jie; Lin Yinjing; Tian Fuyou; Tang Wenyuan; Lan Yu; Zhu Wenjian

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

Vol.26, NO.6, 2015

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2015 > 26(6): 641-657

Zheng Yongguang, Zhou Kanghui, Sheng Jie, et al. Advances in techniques of monitoring, forecasting and warning of severe convective weather. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601.

Citation:

Zheng Yongguang, Zhou Kanghui, Sheng Jie, et al. Advances in techniques of monitoring, forecasting and warning of severe convective weather. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(6): 641-657. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601.

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Advances in Techniques of Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150601

National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2015-08-11
Rev Recd Date: 2015-09-06
Publish Date: 2015-11-30

Abstract

Abstract

Significant progresses are made in monitoring, analyses, forecasting and warning techniques of severe convective weather. Techniques of thunderstorm-intensity determination using lightning jump algorithm, convection initiation identification based on geostationary satellite data, convective weather identification based on dual polarization Doppler weather radar data are developed, comprehensively monitoring techniques of convective weather and systems based on multi-source data are applied in Central Meteorological Office of China. Mesovortices within bow echo systems closely related to damaging winds, trigger, developing and maintaining mechanisms of convective systems are better understood; statistical climatological characteristics of different types of severe convective weather and their environmental conditions, the mesoscale weather analysis specification and corresponding operational website products are providing necessary foundations and technical supports for operational forecasting of severe convective weather in China. Optical flow method, multi-scale tracking technique, and comprehensive nowcasting techniques using fuzzy logic method based on climatology, topography, and multi-source data are advanced; weighted-average method and ARMOR (Adjustment of Rain from Models with Radar data) blending short-term forecasting techniques are widely applied; convection-allowing high resolution NWP (ensemble) forecasts and their post-processing products are getting tested in forecasting testbed; short-range forecasting techniques of different types of severe convective weather using fuzzy logic method based on NWP (ensemble) forecasts are providing supports for the operational forecasting. Comprehensively monitoring and multi-scale self-adaptive nowcasting techniques based on multi-source data, improved techniques of convective weather analyses, development of multi-scale analysis technique and combination technique between weighted-average and ARMOR blending short-term forecasting, and improved techniques of (probabilistic) forecasting different types of convective weather with different intensities or extreme using fuzzy logic method based on convection-allowing NWP forecasts should mainly be developed for convective weather forecasting and warning in the future.
- severe convective weather;
- monitoring;
- convection-allowing NWP;
- probability

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References(159)

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