Chen Si, Gao Jianyun, Huang Lina, et al. Decadal variation characteristics of South China pre-flood season persistent rainstorm and its mechanism. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(1): 86-97. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20170108.
Citation: Chen Si, Gao Jianyun, Huang Lina, et al. Decadal variation characteristics of South China pre-flood season persistent rainstorm and its mechanism. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(1): 86-97. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20170108.

Decadal Variation Characteristics of South China Pre-flood Season Persistent Rainstorm and Its Mechanism

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170108
  • Received Date: 2016-04-21
  • Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-13
  • Publish Date: 2017-01-31
  • Based on the daily precipitation data of 243 stations in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi during 1961-2012, indices (intensity of daily rainstorm IRD, intensity of persistent rainstorm IRS, intensity of South China pre-flood season persistent rainstorm IRZ) are calculated and persistent rainstorm processes are selected. Indices reveal decadal variation characteristics of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm by kinds of mutation test and percentile method. It indicates that the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm can be divided into three sections, multiple (1961-1972)-fewer (1973-1991)-multiple (1992-2012). The present stage is in multiple sections with stronger intensity and longer duration; pre-flood season precipitation exhibits a significant low-frequency oscillation characteristic. The decadal variation of duration and intensity of persistent rainstorm during pre-flood season are closely related to that of configuration and intensity of low-frequency periodic signal. There is a positive correlation between the intensity of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm and the low-frequency intensity of 10-60 days with the intensity strongest in 10-20 days, the second in 30-60 days' and the third in 20-30 days'. The low-frequency signal of Guangdong and Fujian is more obvious than Guangxi in all sections. Frequent, strong and long persistent rainstorm is more likely to occur in multiple sections as the precipitation intensity of low-frequency signal oscillating acutely, and vice versa. The decadal meridional propagation features of tropical intraseasonal oscillation and mechanism and its possible impact on the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm are also studied by using East Asia-western NorthPacific ISO index (EAWNP ISO). The position of the meridional propagation of the East Asia-Pacific Northwest Pacific with different phases can be seen according to different phases' reconstruction of 850 hPa wind speed and OLR anomaly field. The decadal variation of tropical low-frequency northward movement signal cycle and intensity may probably be one of the main causes that lead to the decadal variation of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm. Since tropical low-frequency signal has various cycles, it may cause low-frequency variation of circulation system advantage to the precipitation of pre-flood season, which corresponds to the low-frequency variation characteristics of precipitation there and leading to changes of the intensity and duration of persistent rainstorm when low-frequency convection propagates northward to southeast coast of China. The longer (shorter) cycle and stronger (weaker) intensity of tropical low-frequency signal northward to southeast coast of China is, the longer (shorter) duration and stronger (weaker) intensity of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm may be.
  • Fig. 1  Station map of Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi

    Fig. 2  IRS and duration of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm from 1961 to 2012

    Fig. 3  The power spectrum analysis about IRD of pre-flood season (dash line represents Markov red noise spectrum)

    Fig. 4  The average variance contribution of low-frequency signal in pre-flood season precipitation

    (a)10-20 days, (b)20-30 days, (c)30-60 days, (d)10-60 days

    Fig. 5  IRZ and 10-60-day low-frequency oscillation intensity of pre-flood season rainstorm from 1961 to 2012

    Fig. 6  Low-frequency oscillation intensity of pre-flood season rainstorm from 1961 to 2012 in various cycles

    Fig. 7  Correlations between PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4 and pre-flood season precipitation in China

    (effective degree of freedom:996;0.05 significanc level:0.07; 0.01 significanc level:0.09)

    Fig. 8  Difference between two decades (the years of 1979-1991 and 1992-2012) of appear days (a) and intensity (b) about the tropical low-frequency northward movement signal in phases (circle marks the point significant at 0.05 level)

    Table  1  Precipitation intensity of pre-flood season persistent rainstorm

    强度等级 p IRS
    明显偏弱 p < 10% IRS < 88
    偏弱 10%≤p<30% 88≤IRS<102
    正常 30%≤p<70% 102≤IRS<163
    偏强 70%≤p<90% 163≤IRS<237
    明显偏强 p≥90% IRS≥237
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  The decadal variation of IRS of pre-flood season in different levels

    强度等级 1961-2012年 1961-1972年 1973-1991年 1992-2012年
    明显偏弱 4 1 1 2
    偏弱 8 3 3 2
    正常 18 6 6 6
    偏强 8 1 2 5
    明显偏强 5 1 0 4
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Correlations between oscillation intensity of low-frequency signal in cycles and IRZ of pre-flood season from 1961 to 2012

    低频周期/d 相关系数
    10~20 0.394
    20~30 0.322
    30~60 0.393
    60~90 0.198
    10~60 0.521
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  4  Correlations between oscillation intensity of low-frequency signal in different section and cycle during pre-flood season

    相关周期/d 1961-1972年 1973-1991年 1992-2012年 1961-2012年
    10~20 d与20~30 d 0.18 -0.18 0.21 0.12
    10~20 d与30~60 d 0.64* -0.45* 0.06 0.18
    20~30 d与30~60 d 0.67* 0.17 0.21 0.40*
    注:*表示达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV
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    • Received : 2016-04-21
    • Accepted : 2016-01-13
    • Published : 2017-01-31

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