Luo Hui, Xiao Dixiang, Kuang Qiuming, et al. Radar echo characteristics and recognition of warm-sector torrential rain in Sichuan Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(4): 460-470. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200408.
Citation: Luo Hui, Xiao Dixiang, Kuang Qiuming, et al. Radar echo characteristics and recognition of warm-sector torrential rain in Sichuan Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(4): 460-470. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200408.

Radar Echo Characteristics and Recognition of Warm-sector Torrential Rain in Sichuan Basin

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200408
  • Received Date: 2019-10-10
  • Rev Recd Date: 2020-03-11
  • Publish Date: 2020-07-31
  • Based on data of real-time precipitation and weather radar during 28 torrential rain events in warm regions of Sichuan Basin, radar echo characteristics of torrential rain in early and mature stages are analyzed. Feature vectors for identifying early and mature stages of torrential rain in warm regions are constructed and the selected samples are studied by random forest machine learning method. According to the influence range, duration, and cumulative amount of precipitation, the thunderstorm group is the main part of the rainstorm in the warm region, and its development can be divided into three types.According to the burst of short-term heavy precipitation, thunderstorm groups are divided into primary and mature stages. In the early stage of the thunderstorm to the mature stage, the "in situ development type" is dominant, the "individual development type" and the "in front side trigger type" are the second. With the evolution after the maturity, the "in situ development type" and the "front side trigger type" are the main types. Convective precipitation is the main type of heavy rain in the warm area. After the first type of thunderstorm group, the combination of mature thunderstorms is the main source of thunderstorms, which moves slowly and is conducive to the generation of heavy precipitation. In front of mature thunderstorms, new thunderstorm cells are continuously generated and merged to continue spreading northward, forming a large range of precipitation. Individual development thunderstorm groups have the longest duration and a large influencing range. They are accompanied by long-term merge when moving. Among 28 processes, a large proportion appears in the northwest and has the longest duration. Echoes of these processes are in the southwest-northeast direction, which is basically consistent with the trend of the Longmen mountains in the western part of the Basin. The uplift of the topography (generating easterly wind) plays a key role in the occurrence and development of warm rainstorms. In the primary stage, the average core height and average top height of "in situ development type" thunderstorm group has a bimodal structure. Similar structure is found for "front side trigger type" in the mature stage. Multiple parameters of three types of thunderstorm groups show a unimodal distribution in the nascent and mature stages. To identify heavy rains in the warm area, feature vector is constructed using multiple parameters of the thunderstorm group, and random forest machine learning is also applied, leading to satisfying results.
  • Fig. 1  Station number of different level precipitation in different time periods

    Fig. 2  Combined reflectivity of three-type thunderstorm groups

    Fig. 3  Location of the strongest thunderstorm at 1 h interval

    Fig. 4  Probability density distribution of thunderstorm group in the height of the average core and the maximum core

    Fig. 5  Probability density distribution of thunderstorm group in the average top and the maximum top

    Fig. 6  Probability density distribution of thunderstorm group in the average and the maximum of maximum reflectivity factor

    Table  1  Characteristics of precipitation for different types

    类型降水持续时间降水范围过程累积降水过程降水总体特征
    Ⅰ型较短较小降水移动缓慢导致累积降水大,范围小,持续时间较短
    Ⅱ型较长较大较强降水相对集中,但范围不断扩大,导致影响范围大、持续时间长
    Ⅲ型最长较小降水分散,影响范围大,持续时间长
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    Table  2  Environmental parameters of typical cases

    类型过程对流有效
    位能/(J·kg-1)
    850 hPa假相当
    位温/℃
    850 hPa
    比湿/(g·kg-1)
    850 hPa
    露点/℃
    0~2 km垂直风
    切变/(m·s-1)
    20140912219083.516.3192.0
    Ⅰ型20170818277989.017.3201.2
    20170821360489.017.3201.6
    20130725374690.517.5204.6
    Ⅱ型20170716412692.618.4214.4
    20170719317890.517.6202.6
    Ⅲ型20130619231393.918.1214.4
    20170722199392.718.5217.6
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Recognition result

    试验序号训练样本测试样本正确识别样本初生误识别为成熟成熟误识别为初生分类识别正确率/%
    试验14751531406791.5
    试验24741541452794.2
    试验34751531387890.2
    试验444818016631192.2
    试验54731551415990.9
    试验64591691583893.5
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    • Received : 2019-10-10
    • Accepted : 2020-03-11
    • Published : 2020-07-31

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