Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China

Wang Chunzhi; Huo Zhiguo; Guo Anhong; Huang Chong; Zhang Lei; Lu Minghong; He Yanbo; Liu Wancai

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20210203

Vol.32, NO.2, 2021

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2021 > 32(2): 160-174

Wang Chunzhi, Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, et al. Climatic risk assessment of winter wheat aphids in northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203.

Citation:

Wang Chunzhi, Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, et al. Climatic risk assessment of winter wheat aphids in northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203.

Wang Chunzhi, Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, et al. Climatic risk assessment of winter wheat aphids in northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203.

Citation:

Wang Chunzhi, Huo Zhiguo, Guo Anhong, et al. Climatic risk assessment of winter wheat aphids in northern China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 160-174. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203.

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Climatic Risk Assessment of Winter Wheat Aphids in Northern China

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
4.
National Agro-Technical Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100125

Received Date: 2020-11-02
Rev Recd Date: 2020-12-30
Publish Date: 2021-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Northern China is a main winter wheat production area and plays an important role in ensuring food security. Wheat aphids, as one kind of main agricultural pest, threaten wheat production. Based on wheat aphids disaster and prevention data, planting area and yield loss of wheat, growth period of winter wheat, and daily meteorological data at 561 observation stations from 1958 to 2018 in 8 main wheat production provinces of northern China, relationships between surface meteorological factors and the occurrence area of wheat aphids for every province in North China and Huanghuai area are fully analyzed using methods of correlation analysis, principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis in various time-periods from last December to 10 June. Eight key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in North China and 6 key meteorological factors for Huanghuai area are determined. The climate disaster indices of wheat aphids are established based on the normalized key meteorological factors and validated in 8 provinces. Furthermore, climatic risk aspects are assessed to explore the occurrence tendency of winter wheat aphids in northern China. The frequencies of different-level decadal climate disasters are taken as hazard index, the ratio of occurrence area of wheat aphids to the wheat-sown area is defined as vulnerability index, and the ratio of controlled area to occurrence area is calculated to measure the disaster prevention and mitigation capability.Comprehensive risk index is built by integrating hazard, vulnerability, disaster prevention and mitigation capability indexes to assess risk development trend in decades. The results show that the climatic hazard for wheat aphids tends to increase gradually and there are significant differences in different decades. The vulnerability for wheat aphids tends to be severe over time.The disaster prevention and mitigation capability for wheat aphids tends to improve gradually especially in the 1990s, and the trend slows down since 2001. The comprehensive climatic risk has been more severe and their scopes of the highest risk have been larger since the 1990s. The climatic risk is highest in Beijing, Tianjin, central-south Hebei, part of north Shandong. And it's the second highest in most of Shandong, north Henan, eastern and southern Shanxi, and north Jiangsu area, where effective measures should be taken to reduce the detriment of wheat aphids.
- northern China;
- wheat aphids;
- hazard;
- vulnerability;
- climatic risk

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Average occurrence area of wheat aphids

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Fig. 2 Study area of winter wheat

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Fig. 3 Climatic hazard of wheat aphids during different decades

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Fig. 4 Vulnerability of wheat aphids occurrence in different decades

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Fig. 5 Disaster prevention capability of wheat aphids in different decades

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Fig. 6 Climatic risk of wheat aphids in different decades

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Fig. 7 Tendency of wheat aphids ocurrence in 8 main winter wheat production provinces of northern China

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Table 1 Grade criterion of factors for assessing risk of wheat aphids

因子	低	中等	较高	高
危险性	[0.5，0.65]	(0.65，0.70]	(0.70，0.75]	(0.75，1]
脆弱性	[0.5，0.64]	(0.64，0.77]	(0.77，0.90]	(0.90，1]
防灾减灾能力	[0.5，0.68]	(0.68，0.74]	(0.74，0.80]	(0.80，1]
气候风险	[0.0，0.46]	(0.46，0.53]	(0.53，0.61]	(0.61，1]

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Table 2 Occurrence area, the ratio of occurrence area of wheat aphids in different decades in representative provinces of northern China

时段	河南		山东		河北
时段	年平均发生面积/万公顷次	年平均发生面积率/%	年平均发生面积/万公顷次	年平均发生面积率/%	年平均发生面积/万公顷次	年平均发生面积率/%
1961—1970年	84.9	22.4	14.1	4.0	46.3	21.8
1971—1980年	69.7	18.5	110.5	29.6	104.5	39.4
1981—1990年	143.4	31.6	190.8	49.1	179.2	74.9
1991—2000年	306.7	63.1	332.9	82.6	255.0	98.0
2001—2010年	355.5	70.0	334.1	97.6	220.5	92.0
2011—2018年	376.4	67.4	350.9	89.4	228.9	95.3

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