Refined Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Fujian

Zhuang Yao; Bao Ruijuan; Zhang Rongyan; Gao Shiyan; Pan Hang; Chen Si; Lin Xin

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20220306

Vol.33, NO.3, 2022

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2022 > 33(3): 319-328

Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.

Citation:

Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.

Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.

Citation:

Zhuang Yao, Bao Ruijuan, Zhang Rongyan, et al. Refined risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters in Fujian. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 319-328. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306.

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Refined Risk Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Fujian

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220306

1.
Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350028
2.
Fujian Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou 350028
3.
Fujian Climate Center, Fuzhou 350028

Received Date: 2021-12-23
Rev Recd Date: 2022-02-25
Publish Date: 2022-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

Tropical cyclones have brought huge economic losses to Fujian Province. In order to achieve dynamic monitoring and early warning of wind and rain disaster risks caused by tropical cyclones, the disaster-causing mechanism of tropical cyclones is analyzed. A refined risk assessment method is developed to meet the needs of real-time decision-making on disaster prevention, mitigation, and reducing the economic losses caused by tropical cyclones.Through multiple rounds of rationality tests, 7 rain-induced disaster factors and 4 wind-induced disaster factors are picked out based on the tropical cyclone wind and rain data of 66 national meteorological stations from 1981 to 2021. And then, the risk assessment model of tropical cyclone disaster factors is established using the range standardization and correlation coefficient objective weighting method, and the risk level is divided by the natural breakpoint method and the disaster impacts.The results show that the risk assessment index system of disaster factors is reasonable, and the spatial distribution of disaster risk is investigated. The high rain risk areas are located along the coast, and the rain risk of Nanping and Sanming areas is low; the high wind risk area is significantly narrower than the high rain risk area, and the risk level decreases fast inland. Among them, the coastal areas from Luoyuan Bay to Chongwu are protected by the terrain barrier of Taiwan, and the risk is one level lower than that of the north and south parts of the coast. In addition, after the tropical cyclone lands on the east coast of Guangdong and moves northward, it often stays in the low-pressure cloud over the west of Fujian, resulting in a high risk area in the northwest of Fujian. Based on the spatial distribution of a single tropical cyclone, the disaster situation and the encrypted wind and rain data of regional stations, using the function of GIS and combining several typical tropical cyclone cases, a reasonable threshold for hazard classification is designed. It is targeted, especially urban waterlogging and mountain torrent disasters, which are basically consistent with the disaster situation, and provide more valuable reference information for meteorological disaster decision-making services.
- tropical cyclone;
- hazard-inducing factors;
- precipitation;
- wind;
- risk assessment

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Tropical cyclone warning zone for Fujian

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Fig. 2 Risk distribution of rain induced, wind induced, wind and rain induced

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Fig. 3 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Maria

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Fig. 4 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclones with rain disasters

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Fig. 5 Risk distribution of disaster factors by tropical cyclone Saomai with wind disaster

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Fig. 6 Risk distribution of disaster factors for tropical cyclones with both wind and rain

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Table 1 Risk assessment index system of tropical cyclone disaster-causing factors

等级	降水因子	大风因子
第1级	雨危险性	风危险性
第2级(气象要素)	降水	风速
第3级(因子)	过程日最大降水量(单站), 过程累积最大降水量(单站), 过程1 h最大降水量, 过程3 h最大降水量, 过程暴雨站日数, 过程大暴雨站日数, 过程特大暴雨站日数	过程日最大风速(单站), 过程日极大风速(单站), 过程最大风速不低于8级站日数, 过程极大风速不低于12级站日数

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Table 2 Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropical cyclone disaster at county level

等级	含义	降水因子	大风因子	风雨综合因子
1	低危险	0~0.2060	0~0.0995	0~0.1255
2	较低危险	0.2061~0.2967	0.0996~0.1954	0.1256~0.2158
3	中等危险	0.2968~0.4017	0.1955~0.2853	0.2159~0.3209
4	较高危险	0.4018~0.5230	0.2854~0.4495	0.3210~0.4490
5	高危险	0.5231~1	0.4496~1	0.4491~1

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Table 3 Risk assessment classification of disaster-causing factors for tropial cyclone disaster at township level

等级	含义	降水因子	大风因子	风雨综合因子
1	低危险	0~0.2252	0~0.2124	0~0.1051
2	较低危险	0.2253~0.3206	0.2125~0.2767	0.1052~0.2041
3	中等危险	0.3207~0.4312	0.2768~0.3300	0.2042~0.2917
4	较高危险	0.4313~0.5413	0.3301~0.4039	0.2918~0.4078
5	高危险	0.5414~1	0.4040~1	0.4079~1

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