Vol.35, NO.4, 2024
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2024  >  35(4): 400-413
Zhou Chunhong, Rao Xiaoqin, Sheng Li, et al. Application of scale-adaptive dust emission scheme to CMA-CUACE/Dust. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2024, 35(4): 400-413. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240402.
Citation: Zhou Chunhong, Rao Xiaoqin, Sheng Li, et al. Application of scale-adaptive dust emission scheme to CMA-CUACE/Dust. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2024, 35(4): 400-413. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20240402.
shu

Application of Scale-adaptive Dust Emission Scheme to CMA-CUACE/Dust

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240402
  • 1.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

  • 3.

    CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2024-04-01
  • Rev Recd Date: 2024-06-12
  • Publish Date: 2024-07-31
    Abstract
  • Sand and dust storms are significant natural disasters which affect East Asia and China in spring, occurring from March to May. Performances of CMA-CUACE/Dust, an operational Asian sand and dust storm numerical forecasting system of CMA since 2006, are analyzed. It’s found that the model overestimates in Central Asia, underestimates in northern Mongolia, and diffuses too quickly in downwind areas far away from the source area, especially in Northern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan, resulting in low peak values or less lingering time there for very extreme sand and dust storm events. A scale-adaptive dust emission scheme is applied by resolving the mean wind speed of the model grid into sectional one which can account for values larger than the mean value by Weibull integration function. This significant aspect is crucial because the dust emission is the third power of the wind in the dust emission scheme. New wind erosion database is also adopted which consists of the updated desertification by using twenty-year surface data and new parameters deduced from site observations in the heart of Gobi Desert, determining the size distribution of the emitted dust together with the soil texture data sampling from main deserts in China.After evaluation for the strongest sand and dust episode of 13-17 in March 2021 in East Asia in the past decade, and the consistent run in the same operational environment from 1 March to 31 May in 2023, it is found that the updated CMA-CUACE/Dust effectively improves disadvantages such as overestimation in Central Asia, underestimation in northern Mongolia, and rapid dissipation in China. The predicted peak dust concentration of the extreme episode closely matches observations in China both in the source area and in Shanghai after a 4-day transportation. Threat score (TS) of three-month forecast run also indicates that the improved model shows good consistency and continuity in forecast results across various forecast lengths. TS for 1-5 days with different forecast lengths is significantly higher than that of the previous operational system and surpasses those of Korean dust model—ADAM (the Asian Dust Aerosol Model). Furthermore, the missing rate is significantly reduced, while the false alarm rate remains almost unchanged. TS for episodes beyond the level of sand and storms are all above 0.3, with some exceeding 0.5. All these findings show that the improved model performs much better than the previous one.
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  • Fig. 1  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 1400 BT 14 Mar and 1400 BT 15 Mar in 2021

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    Fig. 1  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 1400 BT 14 Mar and 1400 BT 15 Mar in 2021

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    Fig. 2  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 0800 BT 17 Mar 2021

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    Fig. 2  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation(the mark) at 0800 BT 17 Mar 2021

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    Fig. 3  Forecasted dust concentration by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation in Beijing and Shanghai from 0800 BT 13 Mar to 0200 BT 18 Mar in 2021

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    Fig. 3  Forecasted dust concentration by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observation in Beijing and Shanghai from 0800 BT 13 Mar to 0200 BT 18 Mar in 2021

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    Fig. 4  Thread score, missing rate and false rate for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM from Mar to May in 2023

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    Fig. 4  Thread score, missing rate and false rate for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM from Mar to May in 2023

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    Fig. 5  Threat score, missing rate and false rate of five episodes of sand and dust storms in spring of 2023 for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM

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    Fig. 5  Threat score, missing rate and false rate of five episodes of sand and dust storms in spring of 2023 for CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0, CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 and ADAM

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    Fig. 6  Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in onset stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 6  Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in onset stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 7  Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in transportation stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 7  Forecasted PM10 concentration(the shaded) in transportation stage of sand and dust storm event from 19 Mar to 24 Mar in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 8  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) of sand and dust storm event from 9 Apr to 13 Apr in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 8  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) of sand and dust storm event from 9 Apr to 13 Apr in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 9  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) in onset and transportation stages of sand and dust event from 18 May to 21 May in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Fig. 9  Forecasted dust concentration(the shaded) in onset and transportation stages of sand and dust event from 18 May to 21 May in 2023 by CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5 with observed phenomena(the mark)

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    Table  1  Geometric mean diameter(d), geometric standard deviation(σ) and binding energy(e) of three modes of dust released in MBA scheme in CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5

    分布参数 模态Ⅰ 模态Ⅱ 模态Ⅲ
    V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5
    d/μm 1.50 5.75 6.70 13.75 14.2 27.5
    σ 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
    e/(g·cm2·s-2) 3.61 3.61 3.52 3.52 3.42 3.42
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  1  Geometric mean diameter(d), geometric standard deviation(σ) and binding energy(e) of three modes of dust released in MBA scheme in CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.0 and CMA-CUACE/Dust V1.5

    分布参数 模态Ⅰ 模态Ⅱ 模态Ⅲ
    V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5 V1.0 V1.5
    d/μm 1.50 5.75 6.70 13.75 14.2 27.5
    σ 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
    e/(g·cm2·s-2) 3.61 3.61 3.52 3.52 3.42 3.42
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  Thresholds of PM10 concentration(unit:μg·m-3) for spring dust intensity in China

    地区 扬沙或浮尘 沙尘暴 强沙尘暴 特强沙尘暴
    新疆地区 [245, 4890] [4891, 12388] [12389, 16235] 不低于16236
    西北地区 [408, 6031] [6032, 8150] 不低于8151
    东北地区 [408, 3260] [3261, 7824] 不低于7825
    其余地区 [408, 4727] [4728, 7172] 不低于7173
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    Table  2  Thresholds of PM10 concentration(unit:μg·m-3) for spring dust intensity in China

    地区 扬沙或浮尘 沙尘暴 强沙尘暴 特强沙尘暴
    新疆地区 [245, 4890] [4891, 12388] [12389, 16235] 不低于16236
    西北地区 [408, 6031] [6032, 8150] 不低于8151
    东北地区 [408, 3260] [3261, 7824] 不低于7825
    其余地区 [408, 4727] [4728, 7172] 不低于7173
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Processes above sand and dust storm from Mar to May in 2023

    编号 起止时间 级别 主要影响系统
    202306 03-19—03-24 强沙尘暴 地面冷锋、蒙古气旋
    202308 04-09—04-13 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋
    202310 04-18—04-21 强沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋
    202312 04-27—04-29 沙尘暴 冷锋
    202314 05-18—05-21 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋、冷锋
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Processes above sand and dust storm from Mar to May in 2023

    编号 起止时间 级别 主要影响系统
    202306 03-19—03-24 强沙尘暴 地面冷锋、蒙古气旋
    202308 04-09—04-13 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋
    202310 04-18—04-21 强沙尘暴 蒙古气旋及冷锋
    202312 04-27—04-29 沙尘暴 冷锋
    202314 05-18—05-21 沙尘暴 蒙古气旋、冷锋
    DownLoad: Download CSV
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    • Received : 2024-04-01
    • Accepted : 2024-06-12
    • Published : 2024-07-31
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