THE EXPERIMENT OF EXTRASEASONAL PREDICTION IN CHINA BY OSU/NCC GCM FOR FLOOD SEASON

Using ensemble method, tests for seasonal and annual predictions of rainfall in China during the period of 1982 to 1995 are made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean and ice model (denoted as OSU/NCC). Contrasts between forecasts and observations show that the model has certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for rainy season over China. It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.