RESEARCH ON THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROWTH AND YIELD OF WHEAT IN CHINA

The possible effects of climate change on winter wheat and spring wheat of China are analyzed by using the stochastic weather generator and combining the CERES-wheat model with the climate change scenarios predicted by the climate model with the amount of CO₂ doubled. The results indicate that owing to climate change, the growing season of wheat is shortened, with the growing seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat shortened by 7.3 days and 10.5 days, respectively. Both the absolute and relative values of the shortened quantity for spring wheat are greater than those for winter wheat. Furthermore, the yield decreased due to the climate change. Winter wheat yield decreased by 7%-8% and decreased more greatly in the rainfed condition than in the optimal water condition. Spring wheat yield decreased more greatly than winter wheat, with a decrease of 17.7% in the optimal water condition and 31.4% in the rainfed condition.