THE MONTHLY-AND SEASONAL-SCALE FORECAST EXPERIMENT USING NCAR CCM3 CLIMATE MODEL

Using the NCAR CCM3 climate model, twenty-eight monthly and seasonal forecasts have been made for 1991 and 1994 with the NCEP reanalysis data as initial conditions. The prediction capacity of the model for the 500 hPa height and precipitation in China are examined. The result shows that the model has certain capability in predicting the height field in monthly scale. The ability of CCM3 in forecasting the monthly or seasonal rainfall in 160 stations of China is similar to the synoptic and experim ental methods. Comparison of the forecasts from extrapolated and observed SSTA shows that there is no much difference.