STUDIES OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A HYBRID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

With results of the long-term simulation of a hybrid-coupled model, the interannual variability of the model atmosphere is investigated. With the prediction cases during the period of 1979 to 1994, the predictive capability of the model for ENSO-caused global climate anomalies is discussed. Results indicate that the model can successfully reproduce the global ENSO-related atmospheric interannual variability. Higher predictive skill is mainly distributed over the tropics, where the predictable lead time is about one year. The ENSO-related winter and summer atmospheric circulation anomalies (including air temperature and precipitation) can be basically predicted with the lead time being up 9 to 12 months.