CLIMATIC RISK ANALYSIS OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT OPERATION IN DRY SEASON

Monte Carlo experiment is adapted to analyze the risks of the Three Gorges Reservoir operation in dry seasons. Monthly precipitation derived from general circulation models in the Three Gorges area is generated stochastically to produce the distribution under the future climate scenarios. In addition, a statistical runoff-rainfall model as well as a reservoir management model is set up. The risks of the Three Gorges Project operation under the present and the future climate scenarios are thus assessed. The result indicates that the operation of the Three Gorges Project is very sensitive to climate change, and the risks of electrical power supplying by the Three Gorges Reservoir in spring and winter will change obviously.