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Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55. .
Citation: Mao Hengqing, Chen Yi, Chen Dehui. The development of ensemble products based on the Shenwei medium-range ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2002, 13(1): 47-55. .
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THE DEVE LOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS BASED ON THE SHENWEI MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

  • National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

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    Abstract
  • Based on 32 forecast members of the Shenwei Medium-Range Ensemble Prediction System and the need of operational forecast, some new ensemble products are developed. These products include the clusters of 500 hPa height trajectories, “spaghetti” charts of special 500 hPa height contours, probability “plumes” and ensemble mean charts of 850 hPa temperature, and weather element forecasts from provincial capitals of China.
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  • 杜钧. 集合预报概论. 东亚季风与中国暴雨. 北京:气象出版社. 1998. 457-462.
    Traction M S, Kalnay E. Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Weather Forecasting, 1993, 8:379-398. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0379:OEPATN>2.0.CO;2
    Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, et al. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 1996, 122:73 -119. DOI: 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
    毛恒青, 王建捷. 集合预报业务使用现状和趋势. 气象, 2000, 26(6):26-29. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX200006005.htm
    Atger F. Tubing: An alternative to clustering for the classification of ensemble forecasts. Weather Forecasting, 1999, 14(5):741-757. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0741:TAATCF>2.0.CO;2
    Jacquin J M. Medium range forecast at METEO-FRANCE with the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Seventh Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems. 1999. 57-68.
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    • Received : 2001-04-17
    • Accepted : 2001-06-12
    • Published : 2002-02-27
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