A CALCULATION OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY AND THE METHOD OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING

Two methods-pseudo equivalent potential temperature conservation and reversible moist adiabatic process are reviewed to deal with moist adiabatic process .Modified convective available potential energy (MCAPE) is int roduced to modify CAPE by presenting the gravitational effect of the condensed liquid water in upward convection .Modified downdraft convective available potential energy (MDCAPE) is defined to modify DCAPE by considering the dragging effect of liquid water .Real case studies show that liquid water plays more significant roles in rising parcel by diminishing CAPE largely than it does in downward f low by increasing DCAPE tenderly .Reversible moist adiabatic process is recommended in calculating MCAPE and MDCAPE .A synthetic multi-indicator superposition method is developed to predict the unstable and severe weather area based on the diagnosis of numerical model output .Experiment shows that the skill is practicable to both MM5 and Chinese National Meteorological Center T106 model output s.