OPTIMIZATION AND PARALLEL OF TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION MODEL IN NMC AND TRACK ERROR ANALYSES

The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction (MTTP) on Cray 92 in National Meteorological Center (NMC) was optimized and paralleled through data paralleling and message passing on Shenwei (SW) super computer made in China and the running time could meet the requirement of operational running. The new typhoon track prediction system was set up based on this model and SW computer was put into real time running on 30 June 2002. The initial condition and lateral boundary were updated from T106L19 to T213L31. The track results show that the track forecasts from the new system are better than that from the old system (the system on Cray 92) on the whole. But the performance is different for different types of tracks: The results from the SW system are better for the northeast recurving typhoons and worse for west and northwest moving typhoons.