Chen Lianshou. The evolution on research and operational forecasting techniques of tropical cyclones. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2006, 17(6): 672-681.
Citation: Chen Lianshou. The evolution on research and operational forecasting techniques of tropical cyclones. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2006, 17(6): 672-681.

The Evolution on Research and Operational Forecasting Techniques of Tropical Cyclones

  • Received Date: 2006-11-30
  • Publish Date: 2006-12-31
  • Heavy rainfall, storm surges and strong winds brought about by tropical cyclones are an acute natural disaster which will result in severe damages of loss of lives and properties. Accurate forecasts and warnings on tropical cyclone activities are one of the major responsibilities for tropical cyclone forecasters and researchers.Tropical cyclone has been studied systematically in China in this half century including various topics of tropical cyclone motion and its forecasting techniques, formation and extratropical transition, structure and intensity change, tropical cyclone landfalling and abrupt change in this stage, sustaining and decaying over land, rain/wind distribution etc. The research achievements from Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) in this half century are reviewed for her 50-year anniversary. Other research works related to CAMS could be raised but it is not a comprehensive summary at all.The research methodology and technical strategy with CAMS are advanced in different era. Mathematical-physical statistics, mechanism analysis with synoptic-dynamical theory, numerical simulation, physical diagnostics and field experiment programs etc. are employed in the research programs and play an critical role to advance the tropical cyclone researches in the nation.Another characteristic of the research in CAMS is to integrate the theory with practice, to integrate the research with operational needs, to transfer the research achievements to operational forecast. One of the scientific objectives for CAMS is to raise the operational capacity of tropical cyclone forecasting.Several decades ago, scientists treated tropical cyclone as a particle without volume because people don't know much about the detail structure of it due to lack of data in the vicinity of storms. Motion forecast depends on the environmental steering derived from one layer barotropic model. Now motion forecast can be done by the high resolution global spectral model with data assimilation and bogussing tropical cyclone in CAMS. This technical variation cost 50 years or so. This also reflects the progress and advances of remotely sensed techniques and computer capacity in this time span.A serial field programs carried out by CAMS in the past 2 decades are helpful for the research programs on the sudden change in motion, intensity and rainfall of coastal typhoons and landfalling tropical cyclone studies. Relevant research achievements would be transferred to operational communities.Scientific cooperation and coordination especially the international cooperation are needed for the tropical cyclone research in CAMS. The technical cooperation between CAMS and operational centers are more important and beneficial for both sides. Some of the achievements are the common results of the cooperation, which should be explored and developed in the future research programs.
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