Simulation Study of Climate Change Impact on Crop Yield in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003

Climate warming is very remarkable in Northeast China, especially in Heilongjiang Province form 1961 to 2003, the climate change trend exerts significant impact on the yield change trend of crops. Based on the climate change trend in various areas of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, with daily meteorological data of meteorological stations and their interpolated grid (50 km×50 km) data in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the main food crops (maize and soybean) yields are simulated by WOFOST model in every grid of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the effectiveness test of WOFOST model is made between the official statistical yield data and the simulation yield data from 1988 to 2003, the simulation effect is good for WOFOST model. The mathematical analyses are used for the change trends of climate factor and simulation yield, the spacial distributional characteristics are calculated and analyzed for the change trends of climate factors and the main food crops simulation yields in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the impacts of climate change trend are discussed on the chief food crops simulation yield change trends in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003. The results show that the impacts of the different spacial distribution of the climate change trend are important to the different spacial distribution of chicf food crops simulation yield change trends, but the impacts are different for different crops. The change trend of simulation yield for maize is increasing in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the average increasing extent is about 4.81%/10a, the rising air temperature change trend is a primary climate factor on the increasing simulation yield change trend for maize in Heilongjiang Province. As a whole, the change trend of simulation yield for soybean is falling in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2003, the average falling extent is about-1.52%/10a. The climate change trend impacts are different on the simulation yield change trends of northern and southern areas for soybean, the northern area of Heilongjiang Province is superior planted area for soybean, the rising air temperature change trend is a primary climate factor on the increasing simulation yield change trend for soybean, the change trends of relevant air temperature and rainfall are primary climate factors on the falling simulation yield change trend in southern area for soybean.