Duan Mingkeng, Wang Panxing, Wu Hongbao, et al. The ensemble forecasting verification on the summer Eurasian middle-high latitude circulation. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 56-61.
Citation: Duan Mingkeng, Wang Panxing, Wu Hongbao, et al. The ensemble forecasting verification on the summer Eurasian middle-high latitude circulation. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(1): 56-61.

The Ensemble Forecasting Verification on the Summer Eurasian Middle-high Latitude Circulation

  • Received Date: 2008-04-10
  • Rev Recd Date: 2008-07-18
  • Publish Date: 2009-02-28
  • The middle-range ensemble forecasting results of Eurasian middle-high latitude region (40°—80°N, 40°—150°E) in JJA 2003 are validated using NCEP EPS. The ACC and RMSE validation on the ensemble mean and deterministic forecasts shows that ensemble average forecasts are more efficient than single forecasts when the lead time is greater than 5 days. Under the same model resolution, ensemble average forecasts can extend the lead time of "usable forecasts" to more than 12 hours, even 7.5 days. The ROC analyses on the deterministic forecasts and ensemble probabilistic forecasts indicates that ensemble forecasting can provide the true probabilistic forecasts through the character of multi-members. The ensemble probabilistic forecasts have obvious advantages comparing to the single forecasts and are also better than increasing model resolution. The case study on the blocking system indicates that ensemble mean is better than single deterministic forecast. The characteristic isoline can reflect the disagreement among the ensemble members and the anomalous behavior in ensemble members. Based on those information, the probability of the target happening can be estimated, hence better forecast results can be achieved.
  • Fig. 1  Verification resuslts of deterministic forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height fields in the research region in JJA 2003

    (a) ACC, (b) RMSE

    Fig. 2  ROC curve of ensemble probabilistic forecasts and deterministic forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height fields in Eurasian middle-high latitude region in JJA 2003, the lead time is 1 d (a), 3 d (b), 5 d (c), 10 d (d)

    Fig. 3  ROC area of ensemble probabilistic forecasts and deterministic forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential height fields in Eurasian middle-high latitude region in JJA 2003

    Fig. 4  The difference between reality analyzing and forecast field of 500 hPa height at 00:00 on June 24, 2003(unit:gpm) the lead time is 7 d (a), 5 d (b), 3 d (c)

    (solid line is R-M, dashed line is R-H)

    Fig. 5  Forecast and reality analyzing fields of the 576 dagpm isoline at 00:00 on June 24, 2003, the lead time is 7 d (a), 5 d (b), 3 d (c)

    (strong solid line is reality analyzing field; thin solid line is ensemble average forecast; strong dashed line is high resolution forecast; thin dashed lines are the forecasts of ensemble members)

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    • Received : 2008-04-10
    • Accepted : 2008-07-18
    • Published : 2009-02-28

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