Zhao Cuiguang, Li Zechun. The regionalization and temporal characteristic of rainfall anomalies in North China during summer. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(6): 641-649.
Citation: Zhao Cuiguang, Li Zechun. The regionalization and temporal characteristic of rainfall anomalies in North China during summer. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(6): 641-649.

The Regionalization and Temporal Characteristic of Rainfall Anomalies in North China During Summer

  • Received Date: 2012-04-13
  • Rev Recd Date: 2012-09-27
  • Publish Date: 2012-12-31
  • North China is one of the three rainfall areas in eastern China. Precipitation over North China shows the characteristics of burstiness and locality. According to the statistics, 80%—90% precipitation occurs from June to August. Sometimes daily precipitation of a rainstorm can be up to 50% precipitation amount of that month. So it is important to forecast precipitation correctly especially to forecast larger magnitude precipitation correctly.Objective precipitation forecast is a difficult problem in NWP products interpretation at present in which models are always established station by station. Precipitation especially larger magnitude precipitation is small probability event for individual station, so establishing an effective forecast equation is difficult. Precipitation intensity, spatial and temporal distribution over North China has its own particularity. Due to the regionality characteristic, it is difficult to summarize in one weather mode. Objective partitioning can be used in establishment of precipitation forecast mode. Similar samples in the weather region are combined together. Regional forecast mode is more stable than single-station forecast mode, because the number of large-class precipitation samples is increased. In addition, sample data time selection is important for objective precipitation forecast modeling process.Based on the data of daily precipitation at 703 weather stations over North China from 1981 to 2007, which covers the domain of 32°—42°N, 110°—124°E, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are analyzed with Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method. REOF analysis manifests that precipitation fields may be divided into 7 divisions. Mann-Kendall test and running t-test are used to analyze about the temporal change characteristics of different regions over North China during summer, in order to investigate the beginning and ending dates of rainy season specifically. The 7 divisions are different in precipitation beginning and ending dates. The initial date and final date of rainy season over North China are set up, and their dates are further identified, showing obvious regional features. Rainy season begins the earliest and ends the latest in the mountainous areas of the northeast of North China. It begins the latest in the central part of North China, and it ends the earliest in the southeast of North China. The concentration of precipitation time is different from the natural seasons. The long-term variation trend of precipitation anomalies in various regions and their stage are studied.
  • Fig. 1  Spatial structures of the first seven rotational loading vectors

    Fig. 2  Precipitation regional division over North China during summer

    Fig. 3  Common factor series of the first mode and their 5-day running average

    Fig. 4  Mann-Kendall test of common factor series from 1 Jun to 15 Jul of every mode(horizontal line denotes critical value of 0.05 level; UF and UB are forward and reverse sequence statistics)

    Fig. 5  Running t-test curves of Region Ⅴ and Region Ⅵ (horizontal line denotes critical value of 0.05 level)

    Fig. 6  The inter-annual variation of summer precipitation over North China(histogram denotes standardization value of precipitation; curve denotes 5-year running average)

    Table  1  Occurrence time and area of precipitation in each partition of North China

    分区 降水主要发生区域 降水主要发生时间
    河北中、南部平原区,河南北部、山东西北部 7月初至8月中旬
    河南大部,河南与山东苏皖四省交界处 7月初至8月中旬
    京津、河北东北部,辽宁西部,内蒙古东部偏南 6月底至8月中旬
    内蒙古中部,山西北部,河北西北部 7月初至8月上旬
    山西中南部 7月初至8月底,有间断
    山东大部 7月上旬至8月底
    苏皖北部 6月下旬至7月下旬
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  Wet years and dry years in each partition of North China during summer

    分区 多雨年 少雨年
    Ⅰ区 1990年,1995年,1996年 1983年,1986年,1997年,2002年
    Ⅱ区 1982年,2000年,2003年,2005年 1985年,1986年,1997年,1999年
    Ⅲ区 1985年,1994年,1995年 1989年,1999年,2000年
    Ⅳ区 1988年,1994年,1995年,1996 1999年,2001年
    Ⅴ区 1981年,1982年,1988年,1996年,2003年 1986年,1991年,1997年
    Ⅵ区 1990年,1995年,1998年,2004年,2007年 1983年,1989年,1992年,1999年,2002年
    Ⅶ区 1991年,2003年,2005年,2007年 1985年,1988年,1994年
    DownLoad: Download CSV
  • [1]
    赵思雄, 陶祖钰, 孙建华, 等.江流域梅雨锋暴雨机理的分析研究.北京:气象出版社, 2004.
    刘还珠, 郝为, 林孔元, 等.基于智能计算的多模型气象综合预报.暴雨落区预报实用方法.北京:气象出版社, 2000:30-37.
    宋海鸥, 王永红, 顾善齐, 等.应用K指数和TOT指数制作江苏中期降水预报的试验.气象科学, 2002, 22(2):242-246. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200202015.htm
    陈力强, 韩秀君, 张立群.基于MM5模式的站点降水预报释用方法研究.气象科技, 2003, 31(5):268-272. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ200305002.htm
    赵声蓉, 裴海瑛.客观定量预报中降水的预处理.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(1):21-28. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20070104&flag=1
    龚佃利, 王以琳, 谢考宪.山东飞机增雨降水区分级预报方法研究.应用气象学报, 2001, 12(增刊):139-145. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YYQX2001S1017.htm
    赵声蓉, 赵翠光, 邵明轩.事件概率回归估计与降水等级预报.应用气象学报, 2009, 20(5):521-529. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20090502&flag=1
    刘还珠, 赵声蓉, 陆志善, 等.国家气象中心气象要素的客观预报——MOS系统.应用气象学报, 2004, 15(2):181-191. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20040223&flag=1
    施能, 王永波, 马丽, 等.浙江省夏季降水的区域特征.科技通报, 2001, 17(5):10-15. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KJTB200105002.htm
    孙淑清, 应明, 马淑杰.华北夏季降水地域特征的旋转主分量研究及其相关分析.气候与环境研究, 2003, 7(1):74-86. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200201007.htm
    尤凤春, 段英, 史印山, 等.华北地区夏季降水异常型态特征分析.中国生态农业学报, 2003, 11(1):110-113. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGTN200301033.htm
    陈烈庭.华北各区夏季降水年际和年代际变化的地域性特征.高原气象, 1999, 18(4):477-485. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX199904001.htm
    屠其璞, 邓自旺, 周晓兰.中国气温异常的区域特征研究.气象学报, 2000, 58(3): 288-296. doi:  10.11676/qxxb2000.030
    刘还珠, 肖贤俊.短中期降水温度天气过程区域分布的研究.干旱气象, 2003, 21(3):14-20. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GSQX200303003.htm
    曾晓青, 邵明轩, 王式功, 等.基于交叉验证技术的KNN方法在降水预报中的试验.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(4):471-478. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20080411&flag=1
    章基嘉, 孙照渤, 陈松军.用自然正交函数分解法划分自然天气季节的研究.南京气象学院学报, 1982(2):189-195. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX198202004.htm
    车钦, 赵声蓉, 范广洲.华北地区极端温度MOS预报的季节划分.应用气象学报, 2011, 22(4): 429-436. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20110405&flag=1
    刘海文, 丁一汇.华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6): 689-696. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20080608&flag=1
    施能.气象统计预报.北京:气象出版社, 2009.
    黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法.北京:气象出版社, 1990.
    魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社, 2007.
    Cattell R B. The Scree Test for Number of Factors//Multivariate Behavioral Research 1. 1966:245-276.
  • 加载中
  • -->


    Figures(6)  / Tables(2)

    Article views (3230) PDF downloads(976) Cited by()
    • Received : 2012-04-13
    • Accepted : 2012-09-27
    • Published : 2012-12-31


    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint