Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.
Citation: Ji Zhongping, Gao Xiaorong, Gu Dejun, et al. The low frequency oscillation and circulation characteristics of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2013, 24(1): 32-42.

The Low Frequency Oscillation and Circulation Characteristics of Cold Rainy Weather in Guangdong

  • Received Date: 2012-08-13
  • Rev Recd Date: 2013-11-15
  • Publish Date: 2013-02-28
  • In order to predict cold rainy weather on medium-term and extended range during February—March in Guangdong, the relationship between annual prospect of cold rainy weather during 1953—2011 in Guangdong and that in Guangzhou, and the relationship between low-frequency oscillation of Guangzhou daily temperature and cold rainy weather are analyzed from December to next April with wavelet transform and correlation analysis. The result shows that the similar ratio between the annual prospect of Guangzhou cold rainy weather and that of Guangdong is 94.9%(56/59). In mild year of cold rainy weather, Guangzhou daily temperature exhibits quasi-periodic oscillations of 8.0—18.3 days, 10.1—28.4 days and 30—89.6 days for middle and severe year, respectively.The long cold rainy weather during February—March has mainly close relationship with the intraseasonal oscillation with period more than 18 days, especially with the oscillation intensity more than 45 days. The weather concept model of long cold rainy weather with intraseasonal oscillation of 30—64 days is set up based on composite analysis of typical cases.They reflect the evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation of warmer—cooling—starting—maintenance—ending period of long cold rainy weather. During warmer—cooling—starting period, the blocking high in Ural Maintain and west of Baikal Lake at 500 hPa geopotential height field is maintained, the South China is controlled by straight and fluctuant westerly from weak ridge at warmer period and obvious negative anomalies of height field, the Mongolian High gradually enhances and moves southward in ground, and the South China is controlled by enormous cold pressure ridge from weak trough.The stronger cold air moves southwards and weak cold air continuously supplements. All of the above lead to strong temperature drop and the start of cold rainy weather. When the blocking high in Ural Mountain—west of Baikal Lake is weakened, an obvious ridge maintains, the South China is still controlled by straight and fluctuant westerly, the weak cold air is continuously supplement, the cold rainy weather maintained. When Ural Mountain—north of Baikal Lake controls by weak trough, the South China is controlled by weak ridges at 500 hPa and surface which moving eastwards, the cold rainy weather ends. So the blocking high in Ural Mountain—west of Baikal Lake can be regarded as 500 hPa precursor of cold rainy weather in Guangdong. When this precursor stably maintains, the straight and fluctuation westerly influences the South China, Mongolian High gradually intensifies and move southwards at surface, the long cold rainy weather in Guangdong can be predicted.
  • Fig. 1  The number of the longest cold rainy weather day from February to March during1953—2011(a) and its correlation with wavelet power spectrum of Guangzhou daily temperature at different frequency from December to the next April (b)

    ( the horizontal solid line denotes 8.3 d, the mean number of the longest cold rainy weather day from February to March during 1953—2011, and dashed line denotes smoothed filtered by 9-point Gaussian smoothing in Fig. 1a; the thin and thick long-dashed lines denote the level of 0.10 and 0.05, respectively in Fig. 1b)

    Fig. 2  The composition field (thick line) and anomalies (thin line) of 500 hPa height field (unit: dagpm) for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather(the shaded denotes the anomaly is greater than 0 )

    Fig. 3  The composition of 850 hPa wind field for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather

    Fig. 4  The composition of sea level presure field (unit: hPa) for phase 2—9 associated with intraseasonal oscillation of long cold rainy weather

    Table  1  The regulation of cold rainy weather intensity for different regions of Guangdong

    位置 强度 2月下旬 (北部) 或2月 (中南部)
    低温阴雨日数/d
    3月低温阴雨日数/d 2—3月最长一段低温阴雨日数/d
    北部
    (韶关)
    ≥7.0 ≥13.0 ≥13.0
    3.0~6.9 9.0~12.9 6.5~12.9
    < 3.0 < 9.0 < 6.5
    中部
    (广州)
    ≥14.0 ≥7.0 ≥ 11.0
    8.1~13.9 3.1~6.9 6.0~10.9
    ≤8.0 ≤3.0 < 6.0
    南部
    (阳江)
    ≥12.0 ≥ 4.7 ≥ 9.0
    7.1~11.9 1.7~4.6 5.0~8.9
    ≤7.0 ≤1.7 < 5.0
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  The annual intensity of Guangzhou cold rainy weather and the main oscillation periods from December to the next April during 1953—2011

    年份 年景 主要周期/d
    1953 13.8*
    1954 13.1*, 47.2
    1955 10.3*, 25.0
    1956 18.7*, 47.2
    1957 8.6*, 25.5
    1958 10.1*, 81.5
    1959 48.1
    1960 20.4
    1961 9.7*
    1962 13.2*
    1963 13.5*
    1964 8.8*, 26.1
    1965 10.6*, 49.0
    1966 9.4*
    1967 10.6*, 39.2
    1968 8.4*, 63.2
    1969 20.4*
    1970 6.9*, 49.0
    1971 10.4*, 30.9
    1972 16.7*
    1973 8.8*
    1974 16.7*
    1975 9.9*, 24.4
    1976 16.3*
    1977 21.9*
    1978 12.9*
    1979 13.8*
    1980 11.2, 37.2
    1981 8.0*, 52.8
    1982 13.8*
    1983 10.4*
    1984 21.4
    1985 16.3*, 62.2
    1986 21.4
    1987 8.6*
    1988 13.8*
    1989 13.8*, 54.8
    1990 32.2
    1991 18.3*
    1992 15.9*
    1993 11.2*, 26.6
    1994 17.0*, 28.4
    1995 9.2*, 5.9*
    1996 10.4*
    1997 16.3*
    1998 11.4*, 45.0
    1999 8.2*, 28.4
    2000 27.8
    2001 9.9*
    2002 37.2
    2003 13.8*
    2004 8.6*, 51.8
    2005 11.4*, 51.8
    2006 11.7*
    2007 15.5*
    2008 14.5*, 89.6
    2009 19.1
    2010 20.4*
    2011 8.8*, 20.4
    注:*达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  The occurrence time, number of days and corresponding period for the longest cold rainy weather more than 11 days since 1953

    序号 年份 时段 日数/d 对应周期/d
    1 1956 02-17—03-04 14.9 60*
    2 1957 02-05—28 21.9 28*
    3 1959 02-18—03-01 11.1 23*
    4 1964 02-17—28 11.0 24*
    5 1968 02-01—27 25.1 64*
    6 1969 02-20—03-14 16.4 40*
    7 1974 02-01—13 13.0 30*
    8 1980 02-01—12 12.0 28*
    9 1982 02-06—16 11.0 22*
    10 1984 02-01—19 17.7 48*
    11 1989 02-01—12 11.1 60*
    12 1992 02-05—25 15.4 32*
    13 1996 02-18—29 11.6 18*
    14 1997 02-03—19 17.0 28*
    15 2008 02-01—20 16.7 64*
    注:*表示达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV
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    • Received : 2012-08-13
    • Accepted : 2013-11-15
    • Published : 2013-02-28

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