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Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Drought in Different Growth Stages of Soybean in Heilongjiang
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摘要: 干旱是黑龙江省农业生产中的主要自然灾害之一，影响大豆生长发育和产量形成。利用1981—2017年黑龙江省32个农业气象观测站土壤水分资料和26个站大豆生育期资料，采用中国气象局2018年发布的气象行业大豆干旱等级中大豆干旱指标，分析黑龙江省5个区域大豆各生育期干旱发生频率、强度和干旱风险指数的时空变化特征，并对黑龙江大豆干旱风险进行评估与分区。结果表明：大豆轻旱发生频率高于重旱和特旱，西区为干旱多发区域，中区次之，其他区域相对少发；中区干旱发生强度最高，西区次之，北区最低，东区、北区和中区大豆三真叶至鼓粒期干旱发生强度高于前期和后期，而西区和南区在大豆鼓粒至成熟期干旱发生强度高于前期；西区干旱风险最高，中区次之，北区最低，大豆开花-结荚期干旱风险最高，播种-出苗期最低，干旱中等以上风险区域集中在松嫩平原西部和三江平原西南部，其他大部地区为次低或低风险区。Abstract: Heilongjiang is one of the main growing areas of soybean in China. Due to factors such as natural geographical location and climate, drought is one of primary determinant agro-meteorological disasters which constrains growth, development and the formation of soybean yield in Heilongjiang. Utilizing soil moisture data of 32 stations and soybean growth data of 26 stations from 1981 to 2017, the frequency of different grades of droughts, average intensity of drought, and drought risk indices are calculated. Spatio-temporal characteristics are analyzed from 5 regions in Heilongjiang, based on recognized hazard indicators on disaster grades of droughts for soybean from the meteorological industry standard which is released by China Meteorological Administration in 2018. Assessment and distribution of drought risk on the basis of occurrence frequency and intensity for soybean are pertained. Results show that the occurrence frequency of light drought is higher than that of severe and excessive drought for soybean. West region is an area where drought of soybean occurs frequently, centeral region takes the second place, and the other regions have relatively fewer drought occurrences. As for drought intensity, it's the highest in centeral region, the next is in west region, and the lowest drought intensity is in norht region. Moreover, the drought intensity in three-leaf to pod-bearing stage of soybean is higher than that in early and late growth stages in east, north and west regions. While in west and south regions, drought intensity during pod-bearing to maturity stage exceeds that in early stages. Drought risk indexes are negative. The lower number of risk index correlates with greater drought risk. The highest risk area is west region, the next is centeral region, and the last is norht region. It is an opportunity to seek the use of drought risk index as an indicator of drought risk of soybean. Considering the drought risk in different growth stages of soybean, the highest drought risk periods are flowering to pod bearing stages, and the drought risk of soybean is lowest in sowing to emerging stage. Areas of medium to high drought risk lie in the west of Songnen Plain and southwest of Sanjiang Plain in space through the whole growth period of soybean. And the others are low or slight drought risk regions. These results may provide guidance for soybean drought prevention, loss reduction and planting structure adjustment in Heilongjiang. It is strongly advised to strengthen the prediction and prevention of drought, especially in critical growth stages of soybean in two main plains.
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Key words:
- Heilongjiang;
- soybean;
- drought;
- spatio-temporal characteristics
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图 2 1981—2018年黑龙江省大豆全生育期水分盈亏量
Fig. 2 Water deficit of soybean during the whole growth period from 1981 to 2018 in Heilongjiang
图 3 1981—2017年黑龙江省大豆全生育期不同干旱等级频率分布
Fig. 3 The distribution of drought frequency for soybean during the whole growth period in Heilongjiang from 1981 to 2017
图 4 1981—2017年黑龙江省不同生育期大豆干旱频率
Fig. 4 The drought frequency for soybean in different growth stages in Heilongjiang from 1981 to 2017
图 5 1981—2018年黑龙江省大豆生育期干旱强度
Fig. 5 The distribution of soybean drought intensity in Heilongjiang from 1981 to 2018
图 6 1981—2017年黑龙江省大豆干旱风险指数
Fig. 6 The drought risk index of soybean in Heilongjiang from 1981 to 2017
图 7 黑龙江省大豆不同生育期干旱风险分布
Fig. 7 The distribution of drought risk for soybean in different growth stages in Heilongjiang
表 1 不同生育期大豆干旱等级
(单位:mm) Table 1 Grade of soybean drought in different growth
(unit: mm) 土壤质地 等级 播种-出苗期 三真叶-分枝期 开花-结荚期 鼓粒期 成熟期 壤土 轻旱 (-12, -0.6] (-12, -1.2] (-20, -2] (-20, -4] (-20, -4] 中旱 (-24, -12] (-24, -12] (-30, -20] (-35, -20] (-35, -20] 重旱 (-30, -24] (-30, -24] (-40, -30] (-50, -35] (-50, -35] 特旱 (-∞, -30] (-∞, -30] (-∞, -40] (-∞, -50] (-∞, -50] 黏土 轻旱 (-9, -1.5] (-9, -1.5] (-15, -2.5] (-15, -5] (-15, -5] 中旱 (-15, -9] (-15, -9] (-25, -15] (-25, -15] (-25, -15] 重旱 (-21, -15] (-21, -15] (-35, -25] (-35, -25] (-35, -25] 特旱 (-∞, -21] (-∞, -21] (-∞, -35] (-∞, -35] (-∞, -35] 
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表 2 不同生育期大豆水分盈亏量(Qd)及气候倾向率
Table 2 Water deficit and its climatic tendency rate (Qd) of soybean in different growth stages
要素 区域 播种-出苗期 三真叶-分枝期 开花-结荚期 鼓粒期 成熟期 Qd / mm 东区 19.03 10.74 19.42 29.98 33.27 西区 7.31 2.08 10.97 15.53 15.22 南区 13.47 6.80 16.64 24.68 21.94 北区 14.06 6.50 15.59 25.75 29.06 中区 17.13 7.93 16.51 29.59 27.16 全省 14.42 7.09 16.12 25.29 25.72 气候倾向率/ (mm·10 a-1) 东区 0.28** 0.36** 0.51* 0.13 -0.04 西区 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.07 0 南区 0.05 -0.14 -0.52* -0.57* -0.80** 北区 0.09 0.26 0.32 -0.36 -0.41 中区 -0.13 0.02 -0.41 -0.80* -1.03** 全省 0.08 0.12 0.03 -0.26 -0.42* 注:*, * *分别表示达到0.05, 0.01显著性水平。
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表 3 黑龙江省大豆干旱指数等级划分
(单位:mm) Table 3 The classification of drought risk index
(unit:mm) 分区 干旱风险指数 低风险区 (-1.4, 0] 次低风险区 (-2.8, -1.4] 中等风险区 (-4.3, -2.8] 次高风险区 (-7.6, 4.3] 高风险区 (-11.0, -7.6]
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