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云南5月雨量与热带海温异常及亚洲季风变化的关系
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION IN MAY OVER YUNNAN AND THE CHANGES OF TROPICAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ASIA MONSOON
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摘要: 利用相关分析和合成分析方法, 研究了云南5月雨量与热带海温、热带对流活动及亚洲季风等大尺度气候环流背景变化的关系。指出云南5月雨量与北印度洋季风气流区赤道东太平洋地区的对流活动有明显的相关, 揭示了云南5月多雨年和少雨年赤道东太平洋和印度洋地区的海温距平、200 hPa纬向风和850 hPa矢量风场的不同分布特征。这种前后期海温、对流活动和高低层风场的变化具有很好的持续性, 对预测云南5月雨量的变化有一定的指示指义。还计算了南亚地区4~6月的季风指数, 分析了云南5月雨量与初夏南亚季风指数变化的关系。结果表明, 南亚季风指数高, 云南5月雨量偏多; 南亚季风指数低, 云南5月雨量偏少。同时, 研究还表明南亚季风指数在季风爆发前期和季风爆发时段的变化有很好的一致性。Abstract: Based on correlation analysis and composition analysis, the relationship between precipitation in May over Yunnan and the changes of tropical sea surface temperature and tropical convection and Asia monsoon are studied. The results indicate that these large-scale climate variations strongly influence the precipitation in May over Yunnan and disclose the different patterns when precipitation increases and decreases. Because the changes have significant continuity, it may be useful in forecasting the precipitation in May in Yunnan. The relationship between monsoon index from April to June over South Asia and precipitation in May over Yunnan is also studied. The results show that precipitation decreases when the monsoon index is lower and precipitation increases when the monsoon index is higher.
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Key words:
- Precipitation in May over Yunnan;
- Convective activity;
- Monsoon index;
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