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安徽省旱涝灾害及其对农作物产量影响
The Influence of Drought and Waterlogging Disasters on Crop Yields in Anhui Province
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摘要: 通过对建国以来安徽省多种农业气象资料分析，采用Z指数方法建立安徽省旱涝灾害气候判别指标，分析安徽省旱涝灾害发生规律。结果表明：1961—2000年安徽省有13年偏涝、13年偏旱；分区域看，淮北旱多于涝，沿淮、江淮、江南旱涝相当，沿江、大别山区涝多于旱。通过水稻（一季稻）、小麦典型旱涝年灾损率与发育期间气象条件、旱涝程度的对比统计分析，建立了分区水稻、小麦旱涝灾害损失评估模型和指标。春季涝渍灾害是影响安徽省冬小麦产量的主要灾害，其对冬小麦产量的危害程度远大于干旱，尤以4—5月发生的涝渍影响最严重，极重涝渍灾害的减产损失可达4成以上。同时重点研究了春季渍害对冬小麦产量的影响，提出改进的涝渍强度指标Qw，并进一步综合分析作物的敏感性和区域脆弱性对灾损率的影响。对1961—2000年冬小麦灾损率进行的敏感性和脆弱性订正表明，订正后拟合误差平均值和差异变率都明显降低，灾损评估精度得到提高。Abstract: Anhui Province is located in the north south climate transition zone. Meteorological disasters occur frequently. Particularly, drought, flood and waterlogging are verYharmful to agricultural production. According to the terrain, climate and agriculture characteristics, focusing on key meteorological disasters in drought, flood and waterlogging, and the main crops of wheat and rice, by use of agronomic and disaster information of Anhui Province since the founding of the PRC and weather data since the establishment of weather stations of the whole province and other data, drought and flood disasters identify criteria of climate are established by applying statistical climate analysis, the distribution of drought and flood disasters are analyzed, the impact of drought and flood disasters on wheat and rice is quantitatively analyzed, drought and flood disaster damage assessment models and index and achieve real time monitoring of Anhui drought and flood disaster assessment are established.The drought and flood levels identify criteria of Anhui Province are established and divided into 10 levels each by use of Z index. Crop loss rate (YD) shows the difference rate between the actual yield and tendency yield. By analyzing typical drought and flood years of rice(single season rice)and wheat, it is found that drought and flood occurring at different times have different impact on yield. Considering the meteorological conditions and drought and flood extent during the whole growth of wheat and rice from planting to harvest, and taking into account the critical periods of different regions, disaster stricken meteorology index and standard of Z index classification of drought and flood disasters, the degree of drought and flood disasters are classified. Since spring waterlogging is the major meteorological disaster which influences winter wheat production in Anhui Province, therefore evaluating wheat yield loss by the spring waterlogging is studied. The dankness index Q proposed bYhuang Yuhua is modified in the article. New waterlogging index Qw which takes in to account the precipitation, rainfall days and sunshine time is proposed by which the characteristics of flood and waterlogging's damage can be better reflected. Spring flood and waterlogging are the major disasters which mainly affect winter wheat yield. TheYDo more harm to wheat yield than drought, particularly the flood and waterlogging occurring in April and MaYhave the worst impact on yield which can cause heavy losses up to 40%. The influence on crop yield by flood and waterlogging disaster is not only related to precipitation but also to rainfall duration and distribution. Precipitation and flood and waterlogging index Qwz is the yield loss quantitative criterion for the analysis of the typical years. Crop loss rate is not only closely related to the crop sensitivity to the disasters, but also to the regional vulnerability. The crop loss rate is different due to the difference of sensitivity and adaptability of crops planted under the same disasters. In order to consider the influence of regional difference on disaster assessment, the trend relative frangibility factor method is proposed. Using this method the assessment error which is induced by the difference of regional disaster resisting ability can be reduced. The winter wheat loss rate from 1961 to 2000 has been revised and tested for the regional disaster vulnerability factor, and some specific cases have been analyzed. After correcting regional vulnerability, fitting errors in average and diversity variations have been remarkably reduced.
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Key words:
- drought and waterlogging disasters;
- crops;
- crop loss rate
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图 1 安徽省1960— 2000年年度旱涝等级
Fig. 1 The grades of the drought and the waterlogging disasters in Anhui Province during 1960— 2000
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