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近40年我国极端温度变化趋势和季节特征
The Climatic Change Trend and Seasonal Characteristics of Daily Temperature Extremes in China for the Latest 40 Years
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摘要: 利用1961—2000年我国194个测站逐日最高温度和最低温度器测资料，结合具有实际意义的季节极端温度指数，分析了我国近40年极端温度事件的年变化趋势和季节特征。对年极端气候指数的研究表明：绝对阈值定义的冷暖指数由于无法考虑南北气候差异，其结果不理想。百分比阈值所得的冷暖指数中，冷日指数和暖日指数具有不对称性，冷夜指数和暖夜指数具有较强的对称性。对季节极端温度指数研究表明：冬季极端冷指数变化趋势最为明显，夏季极端暖指数的变化趋势次之，春、秋两季极端冷指数的变化趋势不明显；年和季节尺度的极端冷暖指数均反映出增暖趋势。Abstract: Extreme events have heavy negative effects on the society causing great economic loss so they have attracted much attention. Using maximal/minimum daily tempera ture data from 194 stations for the period of 1961—2000 of China and adopting indices of extreme climate, seasonal characteristics and the changes of daily tem perature extremes are analyzed. The indices of temperature extremes are introduc ed concluding absolute and relative definition. Then the annual indices of hot a nd cold extreme events are discussed. In order to compare the differences of the indices among different seasons, the season indices are also researched. The re sults indicate the hot extreme indices and cold extreme indices defined by absol ute threshold show the trend of summer and winter, but the result of absolute an nual indices of temperature extremes is not satisfying because the differences between southern and northern are not considered. Another indices based on the pe rcentage definitions indicate that cold and hot extremes indices are anisomerous. Hot days and cold days are not consistent and the indices in same area between hot days and cold days are not symmetrical. But indices for hot nights and cold nights show good consistency and symmetry. The indices change little for daytim e but change rapidly at night. The indices of seasonal temperature extremes show that the changes of indices in spring and autumn are most indistinctive, while the indices in winter is the most notable. The cold indices of spring, autumn an d winter are decreasing while trends of summer indices are increasing most of th e time.
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图 1 1961-2000年霜冻天指数 (a)、极端冷日指数 (b) 和极端冷夜指数 (c) 线性变化趋势 (标注黑色“ +”字的站点表示未通过α=0.05的显著性检验；空心图形代表b为负，实心图形代表b为正值)
Fig. 1 Trends per dacade in the annua lindex of frost days (a), cold days (b) and cold nights (c) during 1961-2000 (black cros ses show the stations which are not significant at the 0.05 level; the open one:b is negative; the solid one :b is positive)
表 1 极端温度指数
Table 1 Indices of temperature extremes
表 2 1961-2000年通过显著性检验的站点数和全国平均的线性变化趋势
Table 2 The number of stations which are significant at the 5% level and the average trends per dacade of China during 1961-2000
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