设为首页
加入收藏
Torrential Rain Events Assessment Model for the Upstream of the Huaihe River Basin
-
摘要: 暴雨灾害是我国面临的主要气象灾害之一，对其进行评估具有重要的理论和现实意义。该文以气象降水数据为基础建立数据集，采用统计分析的方法建立暴雨事件评估模型，对淮河流域上游的暴雨事件进行评估。该模型选取了4项描述暴雨事件的指标：区域平均日降水量、区域最大日降水量、覆盖范围和持续时间，通过对淮河上游16个站1961—2007年逐日降水量资料的统计分析，按概率分布划分出这4项指标的各等级标准，从而建立暴雨事件等级标准评估矩阵，而需要评估的暴雨事件等级则通过计算该暴雨事件各指标所组成的向量与等级标准评估矩阵中各等级所组成的列向量之间的欧式距离来确定。通过对历史资料及2008年4月—2010年7月发生的暴雨事件实况资料进行评估，发现评估结果与其所造成的实际影响对应较好，说明该模型对暴雨事件等级的划分较为合理。Abstract: Torrential rain disaster is one of the most serious meteorological disasters in China, the assessment of which has important practical and theoretical significance. On the basis of precipitation data, statistics analysis is carried out to establish the torrential rain events assessment model, and the torrential rain events which happen in the upstream of the Huaihe River Basin is assessed with this model. Four indicators are selected to describe torrential rain events in this assessment model, which are averaged area daily rainfall, maximum area daily rainfall in area daily, rainfall coverage range and rainfall duration. Through the statistical analysis of historical torrential rain events data, several grades are defined for the four indicators according to the probability distribution, and then the grade standards assessment matrix is established. The degree of the torrential rain events is calculated by the method of the Euclidean distance, through Euclidean distance between the torrential rain events indicator vector and each column vector of the assessment matrix, the degree of this torrential rain event can be determined. Through the assessment of historical and live torrential rain events which happen in the upstream of the Huaihe River Basin, the assessment results correspond well with the actual impact of the torrential rain disaster, which indicates that the degrees of torrential rain events assessed by this torrential rain events assessment model is reasonable. The pre-assessment can be made by this torrential rain events assessment model to publish warning information when the forecast data are used, and the assessment accuracy has a positive effect on the forecast accuracy.Through the assessment of historical torrential rain events by this model, the results show that in 226 historical torrential rain events, there are 47 times belonging to level 1, 86 times belonging to level 2, 55 times belonging to level 3, 25 times belonging to level 4, 9 times belonging to level 5, 3 times belonging to level 6, and just 1 time belonging to level 7, which are consistent with the theoretical analysis. According to the assessment results, the most serious torrential rain events happen in 2007, which is consistent with the historical facts.The correlation between the assessment levels of torrential rain events and the Wangjiaba water levels passes the test of 0.005 level, inferring that the selection of the assessment region and the assessment results of the torrential rain events of this research are rational.The analysis of the assessment results shows that the torrential rain events happen 2 days before the peak of Wangjiaba water level, which has important significance to guide the disaster prevention and mitigation. However, the assessments of the influences of torrential rain events are insufficient, which need further research.
-
图 1 淮河流域水系分布和评估区域划分图
Fig. 1 The water distribution and assessment region of the Huaihe River
图 2 区域平均日降水量 (a) 与区域最大日降水量 (b) 概率分布图
Fig. 2 Frequency distribution of area averaged daily rainfall (a) and area maximum daily rainfall (b)
图 3 覆盖范围 (a) 与持续时间 (b) 概率分布图
Fig. 3 Frequency distribution of coverage range (a) and rain duration (b)
表 1 各评估指标分级标准
Table 1 The grading standards of assessment indexes
指标 最小值 1级 2级 3级 4级 5级 6级 7级 区域平均日降水量/mm 21.49 33.36 47.32 58.32 69.7 82.8 95.2 102.4 区域最大日降水量/mm 54.8 76.3 121.3 155.4 188.5 227.8 264.2 298.6 覆盖范围 0.20 0.25 0.38 0.56 0.69 0.79 0.81 0.90 持续时间/d 1.00 1.02 1.60 1.89 2.25 2.70 2.93 3.35 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 所选暴雨事件评估指标
Table 2 The values of assessment indexes of torrential rain events selected
暴雨事件时段 区域平均日降水量/mm 区域最大日降水量/mm 覆盖范围 持续时间/d 2008-04-19—20 53.73 108.8 0.50 2 2008-07-23 100.64 196.0 0.94 1 2008-08-17 64.91 114.9 0.81 1 2009-08-29 72.31 219.1 0.62 1 2010-07-17—18 37.04 113.5 0.28 2
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴 (2009).北京:气象出版社, 2009:17. [2] 李崇银, 黄荣辉, 丑纪范, 等.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究.北京:气象出版社, 2009:51-53. [3] 杨仕升.自然灾害不同灾情的比较方法探讨.灾害学, 1996, 11(4):35-38. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU604.008.htm [4] 冯利华.灾害等级的灰色聚类分析.自然灾害学报, 1997, 6(1):14-18. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZRZH701.002.htm [5] 刘伟东, 扈海波, 程丛兰, 等.灰色关联度方法在大风和暴雨灾害损失评估中的应用.气象科技, 2007, 35(4):563-566. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGQX200610013304.htm [6] 张永恒, 范广洲, 马清云, 等.浙江省台风灾害影响评估模型.应用气象学报, 2009, 20(6):772-776. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20090617 [7] 张丽娟, 李文亮, 张冬有.基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评估方法.地理科学, 2009, 29(2):250-254. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DLKX200902016.htm [8] 刘引鸽, 缪启龙, 高庆九.基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评价方法.气象科学, 2005, 25(1):84-89. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX20050100B.htm [9] 陈艳秋, 袁子鹏, 盛永, 等.辽宁暴雨事件影响的预评估和灾后速评估.气象科学, 2007, 27(6):626-632. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200706007.htm [10] 龚祝香.吉林省重大暴雨过程评估方法研究.气象科技, 2008, 36(1):78-81. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ200801018.htm [11] 李春梅, 刘锦銮, 潘慰娟, 等.暴雨综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用.广东气象, 2008, 30(4):1-4. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GDCX200804003.htm [12] 张顺利, 陶诗言, 张庆云, 等. 1998年夏季中国暴雨洪涝灾害的气象水文特征.应用气象学报, 2001, 12(4):442-457. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20010459&flag=1 [13] 毕宝贵, 矫梅燕, 廖要明, 等. 2003年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情特征分析.应用气象学报, 2004, 15(6):681-687. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20040683&flag=1 [14] 矫梅燕, 金荣花, 齐丹. 2007年淮河暴雨洪涝的气象水文特征.应用气象学报, 2008, 19(3):257-264. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20080301 [15] 徐群, 张艳霞.近52年淮河流域的梅雨.应用气象学报, 2007, 18(2):147-157. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20070227 [16] 施能.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法.北京:气象出版社, 1995:41-43. [17] 丁士晟.多元分析方法及其应用.长春:吉林人民出版社, 1981:601-602. [18] 邓勃.分析测试数据的统计处理方法.北京:清华大学出版社, 1995. [19] 黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法.北京:气象出版社, 2000: 121-142. [20] 陈光舟, 张晓红.淮河流域面雨量计算方法的比较分析.安徽农业科学, 2009, 37(24):11637-11640. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2009.24.119 -
点击查看大图
图(3) / 表(2)
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3555
- HTML全文浏览量: 946
- PDF下载量: 1398
- 被引次数: 0
