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Application of GRAPES Meteorological and Hydrological Coupled Model to Flood Forecast
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摘要: 尝试将GRAPES (Global-Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) 模式与水文模型结合，构建GRAPES气象-水文单向耦合模式，进行洪水预报。气象模式选取GRAPES_Meso模式，分别采用15 km×15 km和5 km×5 km水平分辨率，15 km×15 km的GRAPES模式由NCEP全球预报场提供初始场和侧边界条件；5 km×5 km的GRAPES模式由15 km×15 km GRAPES模式提供初始场和侧边界条件，将GRAPES_Meso模式的定量降水预报分辨率统一降尺度到5 km×5 km分辨率，用于驱动水文模式。水文模型选取新安江模型与分布式新安江模型。以淮河王家坝站以上流域和息县流域为试验流域，将GRAPES降水预报场驱动水文模型进行单向耦合，构建GRAPES气象-水文单向耦合模式，选择2009年8月28日08：00(北京时，下同)—9月9日14：00汛期一次洪水过程，进行实际预报试验。结果表明：15 km×15 km和5 km×5 km的GRAPES模式预报降水与实况降水分布相一致；与水文站观测降水驱动水文模型洪水模拟结果相比，GRAPES气象-水文模式对洪水预报的预见期延长效果明显，对洪水模拟精度也较高，与水文模型输入场分辨率要求相匹配的降水产品对洪水模拟的精度更高。Abstract: The GRAPES (Global-Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)_Meso model developed by China Meteorological Administration is coupled with a hydrological model to increase lead-time of flood forecast. GRAPES_Meso model is run in 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution and 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution. The initial fields and lateral boundaries of 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES is provided by global NCEP forecast datasets, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries of 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES is provided by 15 km×15 km horizontal resolution of GRAPES. In order to match the input scale of hydrological model, quantitative precipitation forecasts of GRAPES_Meso model is downscaled to 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution. Xin'anjiang model and grid-based distributed Xin'anjiang model are used, which have been widely applied and proven effective in flood forecasting and hydrological simulation in humid and semi-humid regions of China for a long term. Wangjiaba Station and Xixian Basin in the upper reaches of the Huai River are chosen as sensitive areas. The two hydrological models are driven by forecast datasets of GRAPES. Upstream Wangjiaba Station, the basin is divided into 10 sub-basins for the coupling experiment of Xin'anjiang model. And Xixian Basin is for the coupling experiment of grid-based distributed Xin'anjiang model. A flood which maintains from 0800 BT 28 August to 1400 BT 29 September in 2009 is forecasted by these two models. The experiment results show that compared with observed precipitation, quantitative products of GRAPES model in 15 km×15 km and 5 km×5 km horizontal resolutions are well consistent. The quantitative products of GRAPES model with 5 km×5 km are larger than the quantitative products of GRAPES model with 15 km×15 km. A promising tool is given by GRAPES meteorological and hydrological coupled hydrologic model to increase lead-time of real-time flood forecast, compared with that driven by raingauge observation. The accuracy of the flood forecasting based on the precipitation prediction of GRAPES model is approximate to the precipitation prediction. The performance may be better if the input requirements for hydrological models are exactly met.
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图 2 2009年8月29日08：00—14:00累积降水量
(曲线所包围区域为试验区域，下同)
Fig. 2 Accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT to 1400 BT on 29 Aug 2009
(the circled area is Wangjiaba Basin for test)
图 3 2009年8月28日08:00—8月30日20:00累积降水量
Fig. 3 Accumulated precipitation from 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009 to 2000 BT 30 Aug 2009
图 4 2009年8月28日—9月9日王家坝站以上流域流量与水文模型模拟流量时间演变
Fig. 4 The observed hydrographs against predictions in Wangjiaba Basin from 28 Aug to 9 Sep in 2009
图 5 2009年8月28日—9月9日王家坝站以上流域流量与水文模型模拟流量时间演变
(a) 起始时间为2009年8月28日08:00, 预见期为84 h, (b) 起始时间为2009年8月28日14:00, 预见期为78 h, (c) 起始时间为2009年8月28日20:00, 预见期为72 h, (d) 起始时间为2009年8月29日02:00, 预见期为66 h
Fig. 5 Observed hydrographs and simulated hydrographs by hydrology model in Wangjiaba Basin from 28 Aug to 9 Sep in 2009
(a) initial time: 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 84 h, (b) initial time: 1400 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 78 h, (c) initial time: 2000 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 72 h, (d) initial time: 0200 BT 29 Aug 2009, lead-time: 66 h
图 7 同图 5，但为GRAPES-5 km模式预报6 h累加降水量
(a) 起始时间为2009年8月28日08:00, 预见期为54 h, (b) 起始时间为2009年8月28日14:00, 预见期为48 h, (c) 起始时间为2009年8月28日20:00，预见期为42 h, (d) 起始时间为2009年8月29日02:00，预见期为36 h
Fig. 7 Same as in Fig. 5, but for 6 h accumulated precipitation by GRAPES-5 km
(a) initial time: 0800 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 54 h, (b) initial time: 1400 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 48 h, (c) initial time: 2000 BT 28 Aug 2009, lead-time: 42 h, (d) initial time: 0200 BT 29 Aug 2009, lead-time: 36 h
表 1 王家坝站以上子流域单元雨量站
Table 1 Rain stations in the upper Wangjiaba Basin
子流域 雨量站 五沟营 西平 板桥 宿鸭湖 遂平、驻马店、确山 班台 上蔡、汝南、平舆、新蔡 薄山 潢川 光山、新县 息县 桐柏、信阳、罗山、息县 南湾 鸡公山 泼河 王家坝 淮滨、正阳 
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表 2 王家坝站以上流域新安江模型模拟结果统计
Table 2 Statistics of the application for Xin'anjiang Model in the upper Wangjiaba Basin
预见期/h 输入场 洪量相对误差/% 洪峰相对误差/% 峰现时间误差/h 确定性系数 84 GRAPES-5 km模式 -39.50 -60.80 0 0.26 GRAPES-15 km模式 -23.90 -32.20 0 0.75 观测 81.06 87.20 -84 -1.30 78 GRAPES-5 km模式 3.39 -6.70 -6 0.94 GRAPES-15 km模式 22.31 21.40 0 0.78 观测 81.06 87.20 -84 -1.30 72 GRAPES-5 km模式 -0.26 -10.40 -6 0.95 GRAPES-15 km模式 10.95 3.00 -6 0.93 观测 73.02 84.00 -18 -0.92 66 GRAPES-5 km模式 -20.40 -41.50 -6 0.73 GRAPES-15 km模式 -11.30 -28.20 -6 0.88 观测 61.63 68.80 -24 -0.39 60 GRAPES-5 km模式 17.20 13.40 -6 0.88 GRAPES-15 km模式 23.70 23.30 -6 0.78 观测 60.30 67.60 -18 -0.30 54 GRAPES-5 km模式 26.80 27.40 0 0.72 GRAPES-15 km模式 27.00 28.00 0 0.72 观测 39.00 40.60 -12 0.46 48 GRAPES-5 km模式 26.80 27.40 0 0.72 GRAPES-15 km模式 9.51 -2.50 6 0.94 观测 9.77 -2.40 -6 0.94 42 GRAPES-5 km模式 8.00 -4.80 -6 0.95 GRAPES-15 km模式 5.50 -4.80 -6 0.95 观测 8.13 -4.80 -6 0.94
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表 3 息县站以上流域分布式新安江模型模拟结果
Table 3 Statistics of the application for distributed Xin'anjiang Model in Xixian Basin
预见期/h 输入场 洪量相对误差/% 洪峰相对误差/% 峰现时间误差/h 确定性系数 54 GRAPES-5 km模式 9.31 4.85 0 0.94 GRAPES-15 km模式 1.85 -11.89 0 0.96 观测 -90.32 -95.41 -54 -0.59 48 GRAPES-5 km模式 9.31 4.85 0 0.94 GRAPES-15 km模式 -54.55 -61.04 -6 0.38 观测 -90.32 -95.41 -54 -0.59 42 GRAPES-5 km模式 9.31 4.85 0 0.94 GRAPES-15 km模式 -62.62 -69.53 -12 0.16 观测 -82.36 -91.49 -12 -0.41 36 GRAPES-5 km模式 -42.89 -45.05 -6 0.64 GRAPES-15 km模式 -65.32 -73.24 -18 0.07 观测 -72.67 -79.20 -24 -0.14 30 GRAPES-5 km模式 -42.89 -45.05 -6 0.64 GRAPES-15 km模式 -71.38 -79.15 -24 -0.10 观测 -71.39 -79.15 -24 -0.10 24 GRAPES-5 km模式 -42.89 -45.05 -6 0.64 GRAPES-15 km模式 -39.07 -44.99 0 0.67 观测 -39.09 -44.99 0 0.67 18 GRAPES-5 km模式 -59.35 -64.23 -12 0.26 GRAPES-15 km模式 -5.99 -2.25 0 0.96 观测 -6.02 -2.25 0 0.96 12 GRAPES-5 km模式 -59.35 -64.23 -12 0.26 GRAPES-15 km模式 -3.86 -0.95 0 0.96 观测 -5.21 -0.98 0 0.96
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