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Pentad Precipitation Changes During Recent 40 Years in Inner Mongolia
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摘要: 基于1964—2003年内蒙古44个站日降水量数据，进行了前20年 (1964—1983年)、后20年 (1984—2003年) 候降水变化的聚类分析，得到了最佳聚类数和各聚类的台站组成及其空间分布情况，对前20年和后20年候降水中值的变化情况、候最大降水量出现时间、各聚类的整体特征等进行了分析，并进行了候 (5 d) 和11 d降水中值极图的对比。结果表明：内蒙古不同地区的候降水变化格局存在经向地带性，但站点海拔的差异使这种地带性有所模糊；前、后两个20年候降水的变化格局较为复杂，大多数站点在一些候降水有显著变化，既有降水显著增加的候，也有降水显著减少的候；候最大降水出现的时间和量值有一定变化。Abstract: In order to study the characteristics of the pentad precipitation median changes in Inner Mongolia, the daily precipitation records of 44 meteorological stations from 1964 to 2003 in this area are analyzed. These 40 years are divided into two 20-year periods, one is from 1964 to 1983, and the other is from 1984 to 2003. From these daily precipitation data, the pentad (5 d) precipitations in each period are calculated and compared at 5-day interval (pentad), and then the clustering analysis is conducted.First, the optimal clustering number of the pentad precipitation change between the first period and the second period is determined by 4 determining indices, classifying the stations into 4 clusters. Then, based on the pentad precipitation differences between two periods, and k-means method, clustering analysis is conducted, so the spatial pattern of the clustered pentad precipitation differences are obtained. The lower temporal resolution data may mask some of the more subtle changes. Use of different time-resolution data can sometimes lead to different conclusions.The spatial uniformity of 11-day precipitation changes clustering is better than the 5-day result. This is most likely due to the different duration of the temperature and the precipitation process. Therefore, analyzing different climatic factors calls for different time-resolution data.By analyzing the polar plots of the pentad precipitations, it is clear that the patterns of the pentad precipitation change are different in different regions and seasons, and the spatial distribution of pentad precipitation change clusters shows that there is a zonation along the longitude. Meanwhile, medians of annual precipitations of the first period and the second period are compared, indicating that the annual precipitation has increased in the most parts of Inner Mongolia. It can be concluded that the seasonal and regional precipitation difference has increased.These changes reflects the correlation of the distribution and trends of precipitation with the intensity and trends of the East Asian monsoon, as well as the complexity of precipitation characteristics in the different climatic zones in Inner Mongolia.
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图 1 额尔古纳市候降水极图
(沿圆周方向弧线上的黑色箭头表示候最大中值出现时间提前或推迟, 顺时针表示推迟，逆时针表示提前)
Fig. 1 The precipitation polar plots of Erguna
(arrowheads on radial lines indicate the direction of shift, clockwise means delay, counterclockwise means advance)
图 3 11 d降水变化聚类的空间分布图
Fig. 3 The spatial distribution map of 11 d precipitation clusters
图 4 图里河的5 d (a) 和11 d (b) 降水极图
Fig. 4 5 d (a) and 11 d (b) precipitation polar plots of Tulihe
图 5 1984—2003与1964—1983年两个时段年降水中值差值 (单位：mm)
Fig. 5 The median differences of annual precipitation between two 20-year periods (unit:mm)
表 1 前、后两个20年降水量变化
Table 1 Precipitation change between two 20-year periods
降水量变化 聚类 候的序号 明显增加 P1 1, 4, 6, 12, 16, 17, 20, 28, 35, 36, 43, 44,
48, 54, 55, 57, 58, 61, 68—71P2 26, 34, 35, 38, 47, 54, 57, 65, 66 P3 28, 35, 36, 41, 44, 48, 54, 55, 68, 70 P4 38 明显减少 P1 7, 8, 10, 14, 18, 21, 24, 26, 29, 37, 46, 53 P2 24, 39, 44, 56 P3 10, 18, 25, 29, 32, 37, 49, 53, 62 P4 30, 37, 49, 59 
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