设为首页
加入收藏
Influences of the Deflection of Stratospheric Polar Vortex on Winter Precipitation of China
-
摘要: 利用1970—2010年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、我国160站月平均降水资料分析了平流层极涡向欧亚大陆偏移与我国冬季降水的关系。结果表明：1月极涡偏欧亚大陆强度指数与同期1月降水的显著正相关区域主要分布在我国中部大面积地区及新疆西南部的少数地区，显著负相关区域主要分布在新疆中部；相对1月而言，与后期2月显著正相关区域仍然主要分布在我国的中部地区但向西北方向延伸，使得华中北部、华北南部相对减少，而华北西部、西北东部等地区增大。对流层环流形势显示出在欧亚型强极涡年的1月，东亚冬季风和东亚大槽异常减弱，我国内陆中东部东南风距平显著，而贝加尔湖北部北风距平显著，南下的冷空气与暖湿气流交汇地区较常年偏北，同时我国中部地区低层水汽向上传播也明显增强，存在显著的水汽强辐合中心。Abstract: Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and monthly precipitation data of 160 stations in China from 1970 to 2010 provided by National Climate Center, the deflection intensity variation of the stratospheric polar vortex, which moves toward the Eurasia, is analyzed and the relationship between the deflection intensity indexes in winter and the precipitation in the corresponding and later period is also studied by means of wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, composite analysis and so on. Results show that there is a dominant interannual oscillation period of about 6—8 years for the deflection intensity indexes. The interannual oscillation period is roughly 8 years from the 1970s to the mid and late 1980s, but it shortens to 6 years from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. Positive phase oscillation occurred mainly in the late 1980s, 1990s and recent years.The deflection of the stratospheric polar vortex, which moves toward the Eurasia in January, has a very important impact on precipitation in the same period and later in February. The same period of significant positive correlation between the deflection intensity index in January and precipitation in January mainly occurs in central China and southwest Xinjiang, but significant negative correlation is also found in central Xinjiang. The later period of significant positive correlation between the deflection intensity index in January and precipitation in February is also mainly located in central China, but extends northwestward, making precipitation in north of central China and south of North China relatively reduced, while precipitation in west of North China and east of Northwest China relatively increased.From the analysis of circulation situation background, it can be summarized that strong Eurasian polar vortex in January may lead to reduced East Asian trough and East Asian winter monsoon. The departure of the southeast wind is remarkable in central and eastern China, which is easy for warm and humid air moving toward the northwest of China. The northerly anomaly is remarkable in north Lake Baikal region, which makes cold air and warm air meet to the north of normal situation. Also, lower humid air transmit upward obviously increases, and significant strong convergence center appears in central China. It is found that there is a significant negative correlation between the index of the Eurasian polar vortex intensity and the index of East Asian winter monsoon in January, which passes the test of 0.05 level.
-
图 1 1970—2010年1月极涡偏欧亚强度指数的时间变化(实线)和9年滑动平均(虚线)
Fig. 1 Temporal change of the Eurasian polar vortex intensity indexes(solid line) and the 9-year running mean of the indexes(dashed line) in January from 1970 to 2010
图 2 1月极涡偏欧亚大陆强度指数的Morlet 小波分析
(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 2 Morlet wavelet analysis of the Eurasian polar vortex intensity indexes in January from 1970 to 2010
(areas passing the test of 0.05 level are shaded)
图 3 欧亚型强极涡年1月20 hPa位势高度场合成(a)及位势高度距平合成(b)
(单位：gpm； 深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.01和0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 3 Composite of 20 hPa geopotential height(a) with its anomaly(b) for the strong Eurasian polar vortex years in January
(unit：gpm; dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively)
图 4 1月极涡偏欧亚大陆强度指数与我国1月(a)和2月(b)降水相关分布
(深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.01和0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 4 Correlation coefficients between the Eurasian polar vortex intensity indexes in January and precipitation of 160 stations over China in January(a) and February(b)
(dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively)
图 5 欧亚型强极涡年1月500 hPa位势高度场距平合成(单位：gpm； 深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.05和0.10显著性水平)
Fig. 5 Composite of 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly for the strong Eurasian polar vortex years in January(unit:gpm; dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively)
图 6 欧亚型强极涡年1月850 hPa风场距平合成
(深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.01和0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 6 Composite of 850 hPa wind anomaly for the strong Eurasian polar vortex years in January
(dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively)
图 7 5年滑动平均后的1月极涡偏欧亚大陆强度指数(实线)和东亚冬季风指数(虚线)的年代际变化
Fig. 7 The interannual variations of 5-year running mean of the Eurasian polar vortex intensity indexes(solid line) and the East Asian winter monsoon indexes(dashed line) in January
图 8 欧亚型强极涡年1月垂直速度距平合成沿35°N的纬向垂直剖面图(单位：10-2Pa/s；深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.05和0.10显著性水平)
Fig. 8 Zonal section of composite of the vertical velocity anomaly for the strong Eurasian polar vortex years in January along 35°N (unit: 10-2Pa/s； dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively)
图 9 欧亚型强极涡年1月水汽通量散度距平合成(单位：10-5g/(hPa·cm2·s)；深、浅阴影分别表示超过0.05和0.10显著性水平)
Fig. 9 Composite of vapor flux divergence anomaly of the strong Eurasian polar vortex years in January(unit: 10-5g/(hPa·cm2·s)； dark and light shaded areas indicate passing the test of 0.05 and 0.10 levels, respectively)
-
[1] 张恒德，高守亭，刘毅. 极涡研究进展. 高原气象，2008，27(2): 452-461. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200802027.htm [2] 刘毅，赵燕华，管兆勇. 平流层环流异常对2008年1月雪灾过程的影响.气候与环境研究，2008，13(4): 548-555. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH200804019.htm [3] 陈月娟，周任君，邓淑梅，等. 2008年雪灾同平流层环流异常的关系. 中国科学技术大学学报，2009，39(1): 15-22. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJD200901002.htm [4] 易明建，陈月娟，周任君，等. 2008 年中国南方雪灾与平流层极涡异常的等熵位涡分析. 高原气象，2009，28(4): 880-888. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200904020.htm [5] 谭桂容，陈海山，孙照渤，等. 2008 年1 月中国低温与北大西洋涛动和平流层异常活动的联系.大气科学，2010，34(1): 175-183. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201001016.htm [6] 陈权亮，李占，范广洲，等.2008年我国南方雨雪冰冻灾害在平流层异常的先兆.中国科学，2001，54(8):1248-1256. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZKJD200901002.htm [7] Quiroz R S. Tropospheric stratospheric polar vortex breakdown of January 1977. Geophys Res Lett, 1977, 4: 151-154. doi: 10.1029/GL004i004p00151 [8] Kodera K. On the origin and nature of the interannual variability of the winter stratospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere. J Geophys Res, 1995, 100: 14077-14087. doi: 10.1029/95JD01172 [9] Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science, 2001, 294: 581-584. doi: 10.1126/science.1063315 [10] Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J. Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J Geophys Res, 1999, 104: 30937-30946. doi: 10.1029/1999JD900445 [11] Thompson D W J, Lee S, Baldwin M P. Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation//Hurrell J W, Kushnir Y, Visbeck M, Ottersen G. The AGU Monograph on the NAO. 2002. [12] Wallace J M, Thompson D W J. Annular modes and climate prediction. Physics Today, 2002, 55: 29-33. https://www.mendeley.com/research-papers/annular-modes-climate-prediction/ [13] 谢再红，孙照渤，曾刚，等. 平流层环状模的分类特征及其与对流层的关系.气象科学，2009，29(4): 498-506. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10300-2008092058.htm [14] 张灵，李维京，陈丽娟. 北半球平流层大气环流转型的基本气候特征.应用气象学报，2011，22(4)：411-420. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20110403&flag=1 [15] 智协飞,朱乾根.北半球平流层低层大气季节内振荡特征.应用气象学报,1995,6(4):492-495. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19950475&flag=1 [16] 顾润源,刘晓东,王玉玺.北半球50 hPa位势高度距平场的EOF分析及其与对流层的比较.应用气象学报,1992,3(2):173-180. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19920231&flag=1 [17] 郭艳君,丁一汇.近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势.应用气象学报,2008,19(6):646-654. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20080602&flag=1 [18] 琚建华，任菊章，吕俊梅.北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响．高原气象，2004，23(4)：429-434. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX200404002.htm [19] 所玲玲，黄嘉佑，谭本馗. 北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究.热带气象学报，2008，24(2)：163-168. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200802007.htm [20] 李春，方之芳. 北极涛动与东北冬季温度的联系. 高原气象，2005，24(6):927-934. http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGQX200400002078.htm [21] 张恒德，陆维松，高守亭，等. 北极涡活动对我国同期及后期气温的影响.南京信息工程大学学报，2006，29(4): 507-516. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX200604010.htm [22] 顾思南，杨修群. 北半球绕极涡的变异及其与我国气候异常的关系. 气象科学，2006，26(2):135-142. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX200602002.htm [23] 龚道溢，王绍武. 近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响. 地理学报，2003，58(4):559-568. doi: 10.11821/xb200304010 [24] 李崇银，顾薇，潘静. 梅雨与北极涛动及平流层环流异常的关联. 地球物理学报，2008，51(6):1632-1641. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQWX200806003.htm [25] 廖荃荪,王永光.赤道平流层QBO与我国7月雨型的关联.应用气象学报,1998,9(1):104-108. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980114&flag=1 [26] 廉毅，沈柏竹，高枞亭，等. 中国气候过渡带干旱化发展趋势与东亚夏季风、极涡活动相关研究. 气象学报，2005，63(5):740-749. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2005.071 [27] 黄嘉佑，刘舸，赵昕奕. 副高、极涡因子对我国夏季降水的影响. 大气科学，2004，28(4):517-526. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200404003.htm [28] 易明建. 平流层极涡异常及其对对流层的影响研究. 合肥: 中国科学技术大学，2009：32-33. [29] Reichler T, Kushner P J, Polvani L M. The coupled stratosphere-troposphere response to impulsive forcing from the troposphere．Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 62(9):3337-3352. doi: 10.1175/JAS3527.1 [30] 孙淑清，孙柏民.东亚冬季风环流异常与中国江淮流域夏季旱涝天气的关系.气象学报，1995，53(4)：440-450. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1995.050 -
下载:
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3063
- HTML全文浏览量: 1057
- PDF下载量: 1785
- 被引次数: 0
