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海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响

柯宗建 华丽娟 钟霖浩 杜良敏

柯宗建, 华丽娟, 钟霖浩, 等. 海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响. 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(5): 536-544. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150503..
引用本文: 柯宗建, 华丽娟, 钟霖浩, 等. 海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响. 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(5): 536-544. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150503.
Ke Zongjian, Hua Lijuan, Zhong Linhao, et al. The influence of sea surface temperature anomaly on the East Asian summer monsoon strength and its precursor. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(5): 536-544. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20150503.
Citation: Ke Zongjian, Hua Lijuan, Zhong Linhao, et al. The influence of sea surface temperature anomaly on the East Asian summer monsoon strength and its precursor. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(5): 536-544. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20150503.

海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150503
资助项目: 

公益性行业 (气象) 科研专项 GYHY201306024

国家自然科学基金项目 41205039

国家自然科学基金项目 41005051

国家重大科学研究计划 2012CB955902

国家自然科学基金项目 41105070

详细信息
    通信作者:

    柯宗建, email: kezj@cma.gov.cn

The Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on the East Asian Summer Monsoon Strength and Its Precursor

  • 摘要: 利用ERA-Interim再分析资料、NOAA海温资料、CMAP格点降水资料和中国气象站降水资料,通过合成、相关和回归分析等方法研究了1979—2012年东亚夏季风强度与其先兆信号的关系,并分析了热带海温异常的可能影响。研究表明:东亚夏季风先兆指数反映了2月200 hPa纬向风距平的主要模态特征 (EOF1),前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高),2月亚洲地区西风急流位置偏北 (偏南),东亚夏季风先兆指数偏强 (弱)。前期热带海温异常对东亚夏季风强度有明显影响,前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高) 有利于东亚夏季风偏强 (弱)。2月亚洲中纬度地区纬向风异常特征在春季不能持续,先兆信号与东亚夏季风强度的联系主要源自热带海洋。
  • 图  1  东亚夏季风强度与先兆信号指数的逐年变化

    Fig. 1  Annual variations of EASM and its precursor index

    图  2  东亚夏季风强、弱年中国夏季降水距平百分率合成差异 (单位:%)

    (黑色圆点表示达到0.1显著性水平)

    Fig. 2  Composite difference of summer precipitation anomaly percentage in different strength years of EASM (unit:%)

    (the dotted denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)

    图  3  东亚夏季风强、弱年2月200 hPa纬向风距平合成差异 (单位:m·s-1)

    (粗实线表示200 hPa纬向风气候场50 m·s-1等值线,阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)

    Fig. 3  Composite difference of zonal wind anomaly (unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa in February in different strength years of EASM

    (the solid bold line denotes climatological 50 m·s-1 contour of zonal wind at 200 hPa, the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)

    图  4  夏季风强、弱年春季200 hPa纬向风距平合成差异 (单位:m·s-1)

    (阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)

    Fig. 4  Composite difference of zonal wind anomaly (unit: m·s-1) at 200 hPa in spring in different strength years of EASM

    (the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)

    图  5  东亚夏季风强、弱年春季降水率 (单位:mm·d-1)(a) 和气温 (单位:℃)(b) 距平合成差异

    (阴影表示达到0.1显著性水平)

    Fig. 5  Composite difference of precipitation rate (unit:mm·d-1)(a) and temperature (unit:℃)(b) in spring in different strength years of EASM

    (the shaded denotes the difference significant at 0.1 level)

    图  6  2月200 hPa纬向风距平的EOF1模态

    Fig. 6  The EOF1 mode of zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa in February

    图  7  2月200 hPa纬向风距平EOF1模态的时间系数与冬季海温的相关分布

    (阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)

    Fig. 7  Correlations between the principle component of EOF1 and zonal wind anomaly at 200 hPa in February

    (the shaded denotes correlation coefficients significant at 0.05 level)

    图  8  东亚夏季风强度与前期冬季海温的相关分布

    (其他说明同图 7)

    Fig. 8  Correlation coefficients between EASM strength and previous winter SST

    (the others same as in Fig.7)

    图  9  夏季海温与前期冬季Nino3.4海温指数的相关分布

    (其他说明同图 7)

    Fig. 9  Correlation coefficients between summer SST and previous winter Nino3.4 index

    (the others same as in Fig.7)

    图  10  东亚夏季风强、弱年夏季西太平洋副热带高压合成

    (图中所示为5880 gpm曲线)

    Fig. 10  Composited WPSH in different strength years of EASM

    (WPSH is indicated with 5880 gpm)

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  • 收稿日期:  2015-03-13
  • 修回日期:  2015-06-02
  • 刊出日期:  2015-09-30

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