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A New Index for Surface Sensible Heat Flux over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Possible Impacts on the Rainfall in South China
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摘要: 利用1982-2012年青藏高原中东部70个气象站的月平均地面感热资料、华南地区92个气象站的月平均降水资料、NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和SEOF（season reliant EOF）方法选取了4个高原代表站，建立了青藏高原地面感热强度距平指数（ISH），并讨论了春季ISH与华南盛夏（7月和8月）降水的关系。结果表明：ISH可以较好地表征青藏高原中东部地面感热的年际变化特征，且具有更好的持续性。春季ISH与华南盛夏降水具有显著的负相关关系，当春季ISH偏大时，后期对流层中上层高度场异常偏高，且高度场异常偏高的响应随时间从低层向高层传递，使夏季副热带高压偏强、偏西，南亚高压异常偏强，华南地区盛夏降水偏少；反之亦然。此外，去除Niño3.4区海温对华南盛夏降水影响后，两者的负相关关系变得更为显著。Abstract: The intensity of surface sensible heat flux (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau is one of the most significant prior signals for precipitation anomalies in China. However, it's always a challenge to establish an index to describe the strength of SH due to the lack of corresponding observations and the complex topography. Based on the monthly surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau which is calculated from observations including air temperature, land surface temperature, near surface wind speed and pressure in 70 meteorological stations provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) remote sensing satellites and the season reliant EOF method (SEOF), 4 representative stations are chosen, a new sensible heat index (ISH) is defined, and then the monthly ISH from 1982 to 2012 is calculated. By comparing with the average sensible heat in 70 stations which represents the regional averaged sensible heat condition in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau, surface heating strength index (B-H) and two indices of Xizang Plateau from National Climate Center, it's concluded that the inter-annual variabilities of ISH can represent the surface sensible heat in the middle and eastern region of the Tibetan Plateau, and this index has better relationship with two indices of Xizang Plateau than B-H, especially in winter, which mean ISH reflects geopotential height anomalies respond to surface heat better. Then the relationship between ISH in spring and the summer rainfall (total precipitation in June and July) in South China from 1982 to 2012 is discussed based on the monthly rainfall data in 92 meteorological stations provided by CMA and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Results show that ISH in spring bears significant negative correlations with summer rainfall in South China. The larger index in spring indicates higher geopotential height in mid-low latitudes and lower in high latitudes during next several months, and the positive anomalies in mid-low latitudes transfer from middle troposphere to upper and maintain in 200 hPa, which may lead to the westward extension of subtropical high in 500 hPa, the South Asian high in 200 hPa and westerly wind around 40°N enhancing, whereafter, it may result in the downdraft and southerly wind enhancing, but water vapor convergence subside in South China, moisture can be transported to northern region through South China. And finally, it will cause the reduction of precipitation in South China during the summertime. In addition, negative correlations will become even more significant after removing the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) in regions of Niño3.4, which indicates there may be more complex coupled influence derived from the Tibetan Plateau heating and SST anomalies in Niño regions.
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图 1 1982—2012年高原地面感热SEOF第1模态空间分布
(a) 冬季，(b) 春季，(c) 夏季，(d) 秋季
Fig. 1 SEOF first modal directional distribution of surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012
(a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, (d) autumn
图 3 1982-2012年春季ISH和华南地区92个气象站7—8月降水量的简单相关系数 (a) 和剔除Niño3.4指数的偏相关系数 (b) 分布
(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 3 Distribution of simple correlation coefficient (a) and partial correlation coefficient (b) between ISH in spring and Jul-Aug total precipitation of 92 meteorological stations in South China from 1982 to 2012
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 4 5月ISH与5—8月逐月各等压面高度场的相关分布
(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)
Fig. 4 Distribution of monthly correlation coefficient between ISH in May and geopotential height from May to Aug
(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)
图 5 高原春季感热偏强 (弱) 年合成的7—8月地面到300 hPa水汽通量 (矢量) 及其水汽通量散度 (填色)
(红框内为本文研究的华南区域)(a) 感热偏强年，(b) 感热偏弱年
Fig. 5 Moisture tranfer (the vector) and its divergence (the shaded) in Jul and Aug (integral going from ground to 300 hPa)
(red box denotes the researched precipitation area)(a) stronger ISH in spring, (b) weaker ISH in spring
图 6 高原春季感热偏强 (弱) 年合成的110°~120°E平均的垂直速度的高度-经度剖面图
(单位：0.01 Pa/s，阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)(a) 感热偏强年，(b) 感热偏弱年
Fig. 6 Zonal mean (110°-120°E) vertical velocity field
(unit:0.01 Pa/s, the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)(a) stronger ISH in spring, (b) weaker ISH in spring
表 1 各代表站常数A和气候平均值M
Table 1 Constant A and the climatological mean values M of four representative stations
月份 A M 日喀则 班玛 稻城 囊谦 1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.2 6.2 2 1.2 1.2 1.45 1.2 14.0 3 1.2 1.2 1.45 1.2 24.5 4 1.2 1.2 1.45 1.2 33.9 5 1.3 1.45 1.5 1.4 38.9 6 1.3 1.6 1.55 1.6 30.3 7 1.4 1.7 1.55 1.7 22.9 8 1.4 1.7 1.55 1.7 20.2 9 1.4 1.65 1.6 1.6 17.3 10 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 14.1 11 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 9.2 12 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.0 
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表 2 1982—2012年高原地面感热强度距平指数ISH与其他高原指数的逐月相关
Table 2 Monthly correlation coefficients between ISH and other Plateau indices from 1982 to 2012
月份 70个站平均感热距平 B-H指数 IXZ1 IXZ2 1 0.66 0.59 -0.42 -0.34 2 0.67 0.53 -0.49 -0.48 3 0.73 0.34 -0.27 -0.21 4 0.77 -0.12 -0.52 -0.47 5 0.78 -0.05 -0.36 -0.39 6 0.85 0.43 -0.29 -0.37 7 0.65 0.17 0.08 0.01 8 0.91 0.53 0.01 0.17 9 0.83 0.26 -0.22 -0.30 10 0.80 0.09 -0.51 -0.40 11 0.82 0.46 -0.41 -0.34 12 0.56 0.32 -0.16 -0.16 注：0.01显著性水平的临界值为0.456，0.05显著性水平的临界值为0.355。
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