用海温预测二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入期的模式研究

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A Study on Prediction Models for Immigrating Period of Moths of First-generation in the Outbreaking Region of Second-generation Army Worm by Using Sea Surface Temperature Data

摘要: 影响粘虫发生的外界因素很多，因此预测粘虫发生期的因子和方法必然也是多样的。本文中用前期海温作为预报因子，采用逐步回归方法，通过电子计算机建立了二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入期预测模式。其方法和结果如下：1．以二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入期为预报对象。2．对一代成虫迁入前期的上一年1月至当年5月北太平洋逐月海面水温资料进行了相关分析。各预报量都得到了几十个高相关海区，以此作为预报因子。3．用它们建立的预测模式，都得到比较好的结果。这说明用前期海温直接预报粘虫发生期是可行的。

Abstract: In this paper, by using the stepwise regression technique, a correlation analysis is made on the relation between the immigrating period of moths of first-generation in the out-breaking region of second-generation army worm and the monthly mean values of sea-surface temperature in North Pacific Ocean from January of the previous year to May of this year. Some prediction models for the immigrating period are given. The results of experimental predictions in use of these models are consistent with the observation data.