西太平洋副热带高压的气候振动
The Climate Oscillations of West Pacific Subtropical High
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摘要: 本文根据1951—1984年逐月副高面积指数和赤道东太平洋海面温度资料,研究了副高的长期变化特征及其与海面温度和太阳活动的关系。发现:副高的强弱有明显的阶段性和3.2、3.8、11.3和22.5年的周期性,周期的长度随着阶段的转变而变化;副高的3—4年振荡主要受海面温度的支配,在副高由弱转强时,海温的变化在先,副高由强转弱时,海温的变化在后;副高的11.3年和22.5年的周期可能受太阳活动的影响,副高阶段的转折年份大都在太阳黑子11年周期的极值年前后,而且在太阳活动奇数周期中副高偏强,偶数周期中副高偏弱。这些结果为副高的气候预报提供了某些依据。Abstract: Based on the data of the west Pacific subtropical high area index and equatorial eastern Pacific SST during 1951—1984, the long-term evolutive characteristics of the subtropical high and their relations with the SST and solar activity have been investigated. It is found that the intensity of the subtropical high has the obvious staginess and periodicities with 3. 2, 3. 3, 11. 3 and 22.5 years. There are different period lengths during different stages. The 3—4 year oscillation of the subtropical high is controlled by SST. When the intensity of the subtropical high evolutes from weak to strong, the change of the SST will be ahead of the former one, and vice versa. The periods of 11.3 and 22.5 years would be influenced by solar activity. All of the turning years of the subtropical high’s stage are almost around sunspot maxima and minima with 11 year period. The subtropical high would be strong in odd cycle of solar activity and weak in even cycle of solar activity. These results would be useful for the long range forecasting of the subtropical high.
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