我国台风业务预报的评价
An Evaluation of Typhoon Operational Forecast in China
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摘要: 本文根据1985—1987年三年资料,评价我国当前台风业务预报现状,并介绍了各种台风移向移速预极方法误差的情况,并按处罚分排列它们的名次,使预报员能了解几种主要客观方法的性能,有利于业务预报的改进。Abstract: In this paper, using the typhoon data during 1985—1987, the current operational forecasting status has been evaluated. Also, the errors of the typhoon forecasting with different methods for the moving direction and speed have shown. According to the verification of typhoon forecast, the names of arrangement in the order of their scores have been given. Therefore, the forecasters could be to understand the performance for the methods and to improve the operational forecast.
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