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Numerical Study of Mid-Range Weather Forecast Using Corrected FGGE-III b Data over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
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摘要: 利用1979年5—8月青藏高原科学实验取得的资料，对1979年6月15日00 GMT 100—850 hPa等9层FGGE Ⅲ b分析的高度和风场进行了客观分析订正，并以订正前后的资料为初值，用T21L5和T42L9两种不同分辨率的北半球谱模式作了5个5天预报的数值试验。研究结果表明，通过高原实验资料对FGGE Ⅲ b资料的订正，将使FGGE Ⅲ b资料在高原地区的分析得到改善。对流层上层的资料订正比下层效果明显。高原地区初值场的订正对数值预报结果有显著影响，并且对较高分辨率模式的预报结果影响更大。初值订正后不仅影响未来高原地区的预报，而且通过能量频散可以影响到我国东部和日本，大约经过5天左右，甚至可以影响到阿拉斯加和北美。
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关键词:
- 中期 预报 天气 FGGE资料 数值试验
Abstract: Five numerical tests were performed by using a northern hemispheric spectrum model with two different resolutions, T21L5 and T42L9, for 00 GMT 15—20 June, 1979. The initial fields used are the FGGE-III b data at 00 GMT over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The results show that there are certain errors on FGGE-III b data at 00 the Plateau, and the errors in the upper troposphere are larger than those is lower troposphere. The correction of initial data over the Plateau has a remarkable effect on numerical forecast results, especially on the results of the model with higher resolution. The corrected initial fields affect not only the forecast over the Plateau, but also the east of China and Japan through energy dispersion, even Alaska and Northern America in about five days -
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