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A Compositive Criterion for Forecasting Explosive Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific
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摘要: 根据ECMWF数值预报产品的气旋加深率、卫星云图特征、高空槽和高空急流等四个因子对气旋发展的贡献确定发展指数，以发展指数作为预报西北太平洋温带气旋爆发性发展的综合判据。对1991年1—6月西北太平洋的温带气旋进行试报，预报准确率比单纯的数值预报提高约25%。Abstract: The contribution of meteorological factors (such as deepening rate, cloud patterns, aloft trough and jet) for explosive cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific is analysed by using the numerical prediction productions from ECMWF. A compositive index FZ which depends upon the factors is given. The compositive criterion for forecasting explosive cyclogenesis is determined. According to the technological process presented, experiments of 24-hour forecast were conducted during January through June of 1991 over the western North Pacific. The results show that the method has an accuracy of better than about 25%
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