国外海气耦合模式及其季、年际预报的研究现状

A Review of the Development of Air-sea Coupled Model and the Experiment on Seasonal and Interannual Prediction

摘要: 通过对国外各类海气耦合模式及其预报试验的综合分析，从海气耦合模式的分类、模式气候漂移和ENSO年际变化的处理、模式分辨率、耦合方式和模式参数的变化对模式年际变化的影响、ENSO年际预报与预报起始时间和资料的关系、ENSO和季风的海陆气耦合系统等方面评述了影响季和年际数值预报水平的有关问题及发展现状，并对开展我国相应试验研究工作提出了看法。

Abstract: The current status on the air-sea coupled models and prediction experiments is intruduced and reviewed by analysing the model intercomparisons as following: (1) treatment on climate drift and ENSO interannual variability, (2) influence of model resolution coupled pattern and parameterization on the interannual variation, (3) the relationship of ENSO-related interannual prediction to the initial time and data, and (4) the relationship of ENSO to moonson: air-sea-land coupled system. Finally, a suggestion on how to run the corresponding experiment in China is proposed.