Several Problems of Severe Convective Storm Numerical Simulation and Its Future Prediction
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摘要: 运用三维弹性套网格中尺度(b-g)大气模式,对3个强雹暴过程作不同模拟试验,初步探讨了强对流风暴数值模拟及其未来预报的几个基本问题。结果表明:采用单点探空的二维暖云计算能定性预报出某些风暴过程,为强天气警报提供一定的参考信息;对风速风向垂直切变较小的风暴,二维模拟结果与三维模拟较接近;而对具有典型三维结构的超级单体,则用二维模拟或只用单向风分量的三维模拟不能模拟出其基本特征;为对不同风暴的生命、演变和降水发展等进行模式预报,不仅要求采用细致的雹云微物理参数化的三维模式,还要求用能较准确代表风暴发生处的背景Abstract: By numerical simulating three cases of hailstorms with a three-dimensional elastic meso-(β‐γ) model with nested-grid, a series of basic problems of future modeling prediction of severe convective storms are investigated. It is shown that some storms may be qualitatively predicted with a simplified two-dimensional model initialized with ordinary sounding, while other storms symbolized with organized three-dimensional circulation, e. g. supercells, can only be properly done with full three-dimensional model and full environment wind components. In order to predict the life-cycle, evolution and precipitation development of various convective storms, a three-dimensional modeling computation with a comprehensive microphysical parameterization should be done and a model initial field which really represents the storm environment condition is required as well. In addition, some feedback effect of a hailstorm is also described.
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