Experiments of Real Time Numerical Weather Prediction of Typhoon Tracks
-
摘要: 根据国家气象中心建立的台风路径数值预报试验系统,引入了模型台风。模型台风是利用获得的场面参数构成的,然后再叠加到客观分析场上作为台风路径预报的初始场。引入模型台风后,无论是台风中心位置还是其流场、质量场与实际观测比较接近,且预报效果有一定提高。利用模型台风对1992年Eli(9205号)和Janis(9210号)台风进行了实时的预报试验。结果表明对这二个台风的移动趋势基本上能预报出来,预报的台风路径与实况进行了对比,并与气候持续预报作了比较,效果较好。Abstract: An experimental numerical weather prediction system of typhoon tracks has been developed by National Meteorological Center. And a modified version of the typhoon bogus developed at Japan Meteorological Agency has been installed in this experimental system. The bogus vortex, whose construction is based on the observed parameter values and empirical formula, is superposed on the original analysis as initial conditions for prediction of typhoon tracks. The initial fields can be improved by merging with the bogus vortex which resembles to the corresponding real storm in both location and structure. By using this experimental system and the bogus method, realtime forecasts are made for typhoon T9205 (ELI) and T9210 (JANIS), and results indicate considerable skill in forecasting typhoon motion.
-
Key words:
- Bogus vortex;
- Experiment;
- Prediction of typhoon tracks
计量
- 摘要浏览量: 3871
- HTML全文浏览量: 208
- PDF下载量: 1662
- 被引次数: 0