Multi-variable State-space Method and its Application in Dekad Rainfall Forecast
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摘要: 结合单个时间序列构造状态空间进行预报和传统研究中多要素分析的思路,建立一种客观的综合多要素的状态空间预报法,应用于旬雨量预报。结果表明:考虑雨量和气温的多变量状态空间比仅考虑雨量序列具有更好的预报性能——437对值的预报相关提高5%,显示了多变量状态空间预报的可行性和潜力。Abstract: Combining the two streams of thoughts, i. e. the state-space reconstructed from single variable time series and traditional multi-variable analysis, a multi-variable state-space forecasting method was developed and applied to dekad rainfall prediction for two regions in eastern China. The new method, by considering temperature and seasonality in rainfall-state-space, improved the prediction correlation by 5% (for 437 pairs of data). The improvement remarkably deals with large rainfall deviations, thus having particular significance to meteorological prediction. Great potential of further improvement through combining more reasonable variables in state-space could be expected
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