Potential Effects of Climatic Variation on Geographical Distribution of Wheat in China
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摘要: 根据GCM模拟结果,分析了CO2增加对我国小麦生产地理分布的潜在影响。结果表明:在加倍CO2气候下,我国小麦生产区将进一步向北和向西扩展,小麦栽培特点和品种类型也有较大变化。气候增暖可能对东北地区产生有利影响,但在中部和南部则可能产生高温应力。小麦生长期间平均温度的升高,特别是收获前的高温可能会增加对更早熟、更耐热品种的需求。Abstract: The potential CO2-induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were analyzed based on GCM outputs. It is shown that the wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubled CO2 climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing and more heat-tolerant cultivars.
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