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Forecast Experiments for Low Frequency Oscillation of Tropical Circulation in West Pacific Using Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis
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摘要: 用1994年逐日西太平洋热带地区200 hPa纬向风场资料建立主振荡预测模型，对低频纬向风场（30～50天）的传播进行独立预报试验。试验结果表明，在夏半年109次预测中提前15天预报的相关性预报技巧在0.50以上。它是揭示低频时空演变的有效工具。同时也讨论了有关模型参数的选取方法。
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关键词:
- 主振荡型分析;
- 预测;
- 200 hPa纬向风;
- 低频振荡
Abstract: The principal oscillation pattern (POP) model are set up based on the daily data of zonal wind at 200 hPa in tropical West Pacific in 1994, and the independent forecast experiments of POP models are performed for the propagation of the low frequency on the 30~50 days time scale. The results show that the skill score of correlation prediction up to 15 days ahead of time could reach more than 0.50 in the 109 forecasts during the northern summer. It is useful analysis tool to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of low frequency oscillation. Furthermore, the method of selecting the parameters is also discussed -
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