A Loss Estimation Method for Agrometeorological Disasters and Its Application in Yield Prediction
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摘要: 该文提出了以无气象灾害时农作物应当达到的期望产量为基础来评估农业气象灾害损失的问题。介绍了期望产量和因灾减产量的确定方法,依据因灾减产量与相应年份农作物不同生长期所发生的气象灾害的强度、覆盖度以及作物对灾害的敏感度等关系,建立起因灾减产量的结构型统计评估模式。Abstract: Based on the expected yield without meteorological damages, a loss estimation method for agrometeorological disasters was introduced. The determinations of expected yield and its reduction by disasters were also discussed. By analysing the relationship between the yield reduction and several factors including intensity of disasters, influenced area and crop sensitivity to disasters, a constructure-based statistical model to estimate the yield reduction by damages was established.
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