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Application of T63 Monthly Extended Range Forecast in Short-range Climatic Prediction of Southwest China
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摘要: 利用国家气候中心1996、1997年1~12月T63模式所作的500 hPa 70次月延伸预报产品和1966~1996年ECMWF的500 hPa旬平均高度场以及西南区域月气温和月雨量场资料，建立了用T63动力产品预测西南区域月要素场的一种完全预报（PP）的动力-统计关系。并对西南区域1996年2月至1998年1月逐月气温和降水进行了预报试验。结果表明，这种利用动力延伸集合预报产品制作西南区域月要素场预报的动力与统计相结合的释用方法具有明显的预报能力。Abstract: The dynamical-statistic relation of perfect prediction method (PPM) is formulated by using the data of the correction products of T63 model during 1996—1997, the 500hPa mean dekad height field of ECMWF, and the mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation over Southwest China from 1966 to 1996. And the mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation over Southwest China from Feb. 1996 to Jan. 1998 are predicted. The results show that the dynamical-statistic method has obvious forecast potentiality for monthly element fields over Southwest China.
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