全国夏季降水区域动态权重集成预报试验

魏凤英

魏凤英. 全国夏季降水区域动态权重集成预报试验. 应用气象学报, 1999, 10(4): 402-409.
引用本文: 魏凤英. 全国夏季降水区域动态权重集成预报试验. 应用气象学报, 1999, 10(4): 402-409.
Wei Fengying. Regional consensus forecast method with dynamic weighting for summer precipitation over China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 1999, 10(4): 402-409. .
Citation: Wei Fengying. Regional consensus forecast method with dynamic weighting for summer precipitation over China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 1999, 10(4): 402-409. .

全国夏季降水区域动态权重集成预报试验

资助项目: 

中国气象科学研究院科研基金,国家“九五”重中之重科技项目

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P456

Regional Consensus Forecast Method with Dynamic Weighting for Summer Precipitation over China

  • 摘要: 根据全国大范围夏季降水趋势分布预报的特点,设计了一种区域动态权重集成预报方案。以多种预报方法对各区域历史预报技巧得分为依据,尤其注重各方法距起报时刻近期的预报技巧,赋予各区域动态归一化权重系数,在区域集成预报的基础上合成全国大范围降水分布预报。1990 ~1998年9年独立样本的试验预报表明,集成预报的预报技巧优于各预报方法预报技巧的平均水平。集成预报在一定程度上改善了预报技巧的不稳定现象。
    Abstract: The regional consensus forcast with dynamic weighting for summer precipitation over China is described. Dynamic and normalized weighting coefficients are to forecasting model for each region of China in accordance with the predictive skill of several individual models for past records. Here, dynamic weighting means that the closer the record is from forecasting origin time, the greater the weighting coefficient is. And the forecast of the precipitation over China is composed of the consensus forecast of 10 regions. The experiments for the independent sample of 1990—1998 show that the predictive skill of the consensus forecast is better and steadier than that of individual forecasting.
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出版历程
  • 纸刊出版:  1999-11-29

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