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Predicting Regional Climate with Self-memorial Model and Its Results
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摘要: 区域气候预测的自忆模式是由描写温度、降水变化的差分-积分方程构成的。文中推导了用EOF展开的预测方程组，给出了该方程组的数值计算方案和递推格式。运用我国1951~1992年的月温度、降水场和区域500 hPa高度场格点资料，对6~8月汛期预测作了回报试验，结果表明该模式的预测能力是很高的。Abstract: A self-memorial model for regional climate prediction is derived on the basis of the self-memorization principle of atmosphere. It is composed of difference-integration equations with variables of surface temperature, precipitation and height at 500 hPa. The hindcasts of the temperature and precipitation in summer for the lead time form 1951 to 1992 are made. It is shown that the prediction skill of the model is quite well, nevertheless, a new approach of the climate prediction is demonstrated.
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Key words:
- Regional climate;
- Prediction model;
- Memorization;
- Numerical calculation
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