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大气平流扩散的箱格预报模型与污染潜势指数预报
ATMOSPHERIC ADVECTIVE AND DISPERSION NONSTATIC BOX-MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF THE POTENTIAL INDEX OF AIRBORNE POLLUTANT
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摘要: 该文在对平流扩散方程积分的基础上, 建立了对初始浓度有记忆力, 并对非相邻地区的浓度有感受力的箱格预报模式, 该模式的框架可用于各种时、空间尺度或多尺度的空气污染预测、预报.文中还定义了物理意义明确的空气污染潜势指数PPI以反映大气通风扩散稀释和干、湿沉降清除大气污染物的总能力, 结合天气预报模式和箱格预报模式则可进行空气污染潜势预报.给出了对源强和浓度监测要求灵活的空气污染指数PSI的预报公式和方法.在仅使用常规浓度监测资料的条件下, 检验了该文的基本方法, 其结果看来是可接受的.Abstract: Besed on the integration of the atmospheric advective and dispersion equation, a nonstatic box-model is built up which has memory of previous concentration and may be sensitive to nonadjacent boxes. The frame of the model could be used for prediction of air pollution on various scales. The airborne pollutant potential index (PPI), which has obvious physical meaning, is also defined to representthe ability to dilute the air pollutants by atmospheric advection and dispersion and/or to clean them out by dry and wet sedimentation. PPI could be used in the nonstatic box-model for prediction of the polluted potential in atmosphere. Furthermore, the prognostic formula and procedure for prediction of pollutant standard index (PSI) are given which depend flexibly on the monitored source strength and/or concentration distribution. Using the regular concentration data, the prediction procedure is tested and the results are acceptable.
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[1] 预报试验小组. 北京空气污染气象条件的预报试验. 气象, 1981, 11(1): 25~28. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX198111014.htm [2] Xu Dahai, Peter F, et al. Exponential Fitting in Auto-correlation Analysis. Fifth Joint Conference on Applicaion of Air Pollution Meteorology, Chapel Hill: AMS, 1986. 384~351. [3] 徐大海.多尺度湍流的扩散及扩散率.气象学报, 1989, 47(3): 302~311. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB198903006.htm [4] Roland B S. Review of non-local mixing in turbulent atmospheres:Transilient turbulence theory. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 1993, 62: 21~96. doi: 10.1007/BF00705546 [5] 徐大海, 李宗恺.城市大气污染物排放总量控制中多源模拟法与国家标准A-P值方法的关系.气象科学, 1993, 3 (2): 146~151. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX199302004.htm [6] 王鹏云, 潘在桃, 徐宝新, 等.中尺度业务预报试验数值模式系统.应用气象学报, 1992, 3(3): 257~265. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19920345&flag=1 [7] 赵德山, 徐大海, 等.城市大气污染总量控制方法手册.北京:中国环境科学出版社, 1991. [8] 徐大海. 我国一些地区大气边界层高度诊断分析公式中参数的统计结果. 北京气象学院学术论文集. 北京: 气象出版社, 1987. 72~80. [9] 徐大海, 朱蓉.国家标准GB/T3840-91中城市大气污染物总量控制A-P值法的应用.城市环境与城市生态, 1993, 6(2), 36~41. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CHCS199302010.htm -
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