夏季长江中下游冷热、旱涝和东部近海台风活动及其与ENSO关系的研究

资助项目: 本文由国家“九五”攻关项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”96-908-04-03-4资助.本文为了叙述方便, 将热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风统称为台风

STUDY ON THE FEATURES OF FLOOD/DROUGHT AND ACTIVITIES OF TYPHOONS OVER EAST CHINA SEA AND THEIR LINKAGE TO ENSO IN WARM/COOL SUMMERS

摘要: 利用1951~1995年气温、降水和台风年鉴等资料, 在划分长江中下游冷、热夏年标准的基础上, 分别统计分析了我国近海台风活动异常和季风雨型特征及其与ENSO的关系.指出, 冷夏年和热夏年我国东部近海台风活动差异显著; 与之相对应的季风雨型同样十分悬殊; 同时赤道太平洋海温SSTA场的配置亦迥然不同.最后给出了遥响应过程图像的物理概念模型.
- 长江中下游;
- 冷热夏台风;
- 季风雨型;
- ENSO
Abstract: By using the data of temperature, precipitation and typhoon year book from 1951 to 1995, the warm and cool summers are defined and identified, and features of monsoon rainband distribution and the abnormal activities of typhoons over the East China Sea as well as their linkages to ENSO are statistically analyzed. The results show that the activities of typhoons and the monsoon rainband distribution in warm summers are very different from those of cool summers. Meanwhile, the SSTA over equatorial Pacific exhibits distinctively contrast during warm summers and cool summers. In addition, the physical concept model about the teleconnection is given.
- The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River;
- Warm summer;
- Cool summer;
- Typhoon Monsoon rainband

图 1 冷 (a)、热 (b) 夏年中国东部近海台风频数分布及其主要路径

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 夏季长江中下游温度EOF₁时间系数TT₁同热带OLR异常的同期相关分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 遥响应过程物理概念模型

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 长江中下游冷、热夏和近海台风活动及与ENSO的统计关系

表 2 冷夏年中国东部近海台风变化特征

表 3 热夏年中国东部近海台风变化特征

表 4 长江中下游冷、热夏年季风雨型与ENSO的统计关系

[1]	廖荃荪, 赵振国.我国东部夏季降水分布的季度预报方法.应用气象学报, 1992, 3 (增刊): 1~9. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CJFQ&dbname=CJFD9093&filename=YYQX1992S1000&v=MDI3MDBQRFRhZHJLeEY5T3ZybzlGWklSOGVYMUx1eFlTN0RoMVQzcVRyV00xRnJDVVJMMmZZK2RxRmlEa1Zyck4=
[2]	陈乾金.我国近海台风突然加强和眼结构变化及其与环流背景关系的统计研究.海洋学报, 1996, 18 (3): 121~122. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SEAC603.015.htm
[3]	陶诗言.1994年东亚夏季风活动的异常与华南的特大洪涝灾害.1994年华南特大暴雨洪涝学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社, 1996.1~5.
[4]	Webster P J.Seasonalily in the local and remote atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies.J.Atmos.Sci., 1982, 39: 41~52. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<0041:SITLAR>2.0.CO;2
[5]	Lau K M, Chan P H.Short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnection from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation, part 1: Simultaneaus relationships.J.Atmos.Sci., 1983, 40: 2735~2750. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<2735:STCVAA>2.0.CO;2
[6]	马乃孚, 杨景勋.长江中下游冷夏与海气相互作用.海洋学报, 1994, 16 (1): 26~27. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SEAC401.002.htm