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ENSO事件与云南冬季气温异常
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO EVENTS AND WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY IN YUNNAN
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摘要: 分析了1961年以来11次El Niño和8次La Niña事件对云南冬季气温变化的影响, 发现: El Niño (La Niña) 年云南冬季气温偏高 (低), 有暖 (冷) 冬特征, 其中以东部、中部和南部最为显著.冬季赤道东太平洋SSTA与同期云南气温距平有显著的正相关, 上一年SSTA与次年云南1月气温也有好的正相关. SSTA异常正 (负) 值是云南暖 (冷) 冬的一个强信号.在ENSO影响下, 东亚冬季风偏弱 (强) 是形成云南暖 (冷) 冬的主要原因.Abstract: The influences of 11 El Niño and 8 La Niña events since 1961 on winter temperature variation in Yunnan have been analyzed. It is found that the winter temperature in Yunnan is higher (lower) in El Niño (La Niña) years, which has warm (cold) winter feature, and is more obvious in eastern, middle and southern Yunnan. The sea surface temperature a nomaly (SSTA) over the equatorial East Pacific has the positive significant correlation with winter temperature a nomaly in Yunnan, and monthly SSTA in the previous year has better positive correlation with temperature anomaly of Yunnan in January of the next year. The SST positive (negative) anomaly is a strong signal of warm (cold) winter in Yunnan. Under the influence of ENSO, the weak (strong) winter monsoon over East Asia is the main cause of warm (cold) winter in Yunnan.
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Key words:
- ENSO event;
- Yunnan;
- Warm (cold) winter;
- Winter monsoon anomaly;
- Anomaly correlation
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表 1 1961～1997年ENSO年云南冬季气温距平站数
表 2 1961～1997年云南冬季气温距平与赤道东太平洋SSTA的相关系数
表 3 1950～1997年冬季 (11月至翌年2月) 昆明日平均温度低于5 ℃的日数
表 4 1961～1997年ENSO年云南冬季气温冷暖情况
表 5 上一年逐月赤道东太平洋SSTA与次年1月云南气温距平相关系数 (1961～1997年)
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