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利用随机天气模式及多种插值方法生成逐日气候变化情景的研究
STUDY ON THE CREATION OF DAILY CLIMATIC VARIATION SCENARIOS WITH A STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR AND VARIOUS INTERPOLATIONS
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摘要: 针对目前大气环流模式在用于气候变化影响评估研究中时间分辨率较低的局恨性, 以及气候情景的要求和气候变化影响研究的需要, 结合GCM的模拟试验结果, 利用随机天气模式WGEN生成了中国东北地区未来气候变化的逐日情景, 其中包含了可能的气候变率信息, 可与作物动力模式等气候影响模式嵌套, 研究作物生长发育及其产量的可能变化, 及气候变率变化的可能影响等.Abstract: In view of the lower temporal resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) in assessing the impacts of climatic variation, the requirements of climatic variation scenarios and the studies on the potential implication of climatic variation, a stochastic weather generator WGEN is used to produce daily climatic variation scenario which also embodies possible climatic variability in Northeast China in accordance with commonly available information from GCMs. It could be applied to couple with climatic impact models, such as crop growth and development models in order to study the variation of crop growth and development and their yields, and possible impacts of variation of climatic variability.
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表 1 DKRZ OPYC模拟的东亚气候区域平均变化[9]
表 2 DKRZ OPYC输出及其插值订正前后最高气温 (Tmax) 最低气温 (Tmin) 和降水量 (p) 增量对比分析 (沈阳)
表 3 WGEN模拟试验与DKRZ OPYC试验结果对比分析
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