El Niño和La Niña冬季增强型和减弱型及其对中国夏季旱涝的影响
INFLUENCES OF WINTER-STRENGTHEN PATTERN AND WINTER-WEAKEN PATTERN OF EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA ON DROUGHT/FLOOD IN SUMMER OVER CHINA
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摘要: 根据El Niño和La Niña发生以后冬季赤道东太平洋海温距平的月际差定义了El Niño和La Niña冬季增强型和冬季减弱型, 讨论了El Niño和La Niña冬季增强型和减弱型冬、春、夏季大气环流、东亚季风及我国夏季降水和旱涝分布的特征.我国夏季降水和旱涝有明显差异的四种不同分布型可能与冬季所处ENSO循环的不同阶段以及大气环流和东亚季风对它的不同响应有关.提出了从El Niño和La Niña冬季不同型→大气环流和东亚季风→我国夏季降水和旱涝分布型的物理统计概念模型.Abstract: According to the inter-monthly SSTA variation during winter in equatorial East Pacific after the occurrings of El Niño and La Niña onset, the winter-strengthen pattern and winter-weaken pattern of El Niño and La Niña are defined. The characteristics of the general circulation in winter, spring and summer, East Asian monsoon, summer rainfall and the distribution of drought/flood in China are discussed. It is shown that the four kinds of patterns for summer rainfall and drought/flood in China could be associated with different phases of ENSO cycle during winter, and with different responses of the general circulation and East Asian monsoon to that. Finally, a physics concept pattern is proposed about the rainfall distribution patterns in summer over China which are associated with different patterns of El Niño and La Niña in winter as well as the general circulation and the East Asian monsoon.
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图 3 El Niño和La Niña冬季增强型和减弱型夏季 (6~8月) 500 hPa高度平均标准化距平分布图 (a) El Niño加强型 (b) El Niño减弱型 (c) La Niña加强型 (d) La Niña减弱型
(其它说明同图 2)
表 1 El Niño和 La Niña加强型和减弱型历年东亚季风指数 (距平)
表 2 El Niño和La Niña不同型我国夏季降水旱涝分布型和登陆台风
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