利用OSU/NCC模式进行我国汛期季度和年度短期气候预测的试验
THE EXPERIMENT OF EXTRASEASONAL PREDICTION IN CHINA BY OSU/NCC GCM FOR FLOOD SEASON
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摘要: 该文利用OSU/NCC全球大气环流模式耦合全球混合层海洋与海冰模式, 采用集合预报的方法, 对中国汛期降水进行了1982~1995年共14年的季度和年度综合性预报试验研究.结果表明:该模式对我国汛期降水具有一定的季度和年度预报能力, 而对部分地区有较强的预报能力.Abstract: Using ensemble method, tests for seasonal and annual predictions of rainfall in China during the period of 1982 to 1995 are made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean and ice model (denoted as OSU/NCC). Contrasts between forecasts and observations show that the model has certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for rainy season over China. It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.
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表 1 OSU/NCC模式对1982~1995年中国汛期季度降水预测结果的评估参数值
表 2 模式年度预报对次年汛期降水预测结果的评估参数值
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